THE Yeltsin Lebed pact, made with the swiftness of a ballistic missile on Monday, by no means guarantees President Yeltsin success in the second round of Russia's presidential elections on July 3rd.
Even the simple arithmetic tells the story. Mr Yeltsin won 35 per cent in the first round and Gen Lebed took 14.7 per cent, so even if all the Lebed voters switched to Mr Yeltsin he would still be just short of the 50 per cent necessary for election.
Mr Yell sin himself, who has the background of a doughty ward politician, knows this well, and his decision yesterday to cancel his visit to the G7 summit in Lyons at the end of this month shows that he knows he still has to fight for victory.
Analysts suggest that last Sunday Gen Lebed drew most of his votes from disgruntled Russians who opted for him just ahead of the Communist candidate Mr Gennady Zyuganov, and the ultra nationalist, Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky. It would take a great deal of persuasion to get them to switch their allegiance to Mr Yeltsin.
In fact, Mr Yeltsin seems more assured of support from those who voted for the democratic candidate, Mr Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the Yabloko party, who yesterday stopped short of an endorsement but was emphatic in his denunciation of the communists. "Never under any circumstances will Yabloko support Gennady Zyuganov," he said.
Mr Yavlinsky won almost 8 per cent on Sunday but he may be asking too much of Mr Yeltsin in return for full support. "I would be ready to have any post in a government which would be free of corruption, stop the Chechen war, give the highest value to private property and make human rights the cornerstone of its policy," Mr Yavlinsky said.
Mr Zyuganov said yesterday he was convinced he would get two thirds of Gen Lebed's votes despite the deal struck by Mr Yeltsin. In Washington, State Department officials said they felt Mr Yeltsin needed to do a deal with Mr Yavlinsky in order to strengthen his chances of victory.
Gen Lebed, a blunt soldier, now faces the usual Kremlin intrigues to dissipate his power base and spent yesterday talking to generals who had been pushed aside under the regime of the former defence minister, Gen Pavel Grachev.
Fears of a new administration dominated by Mr Yeltsin and Gen Lebed were expressed yesterday by a human rights activist and former gulag prisoner, Mr Sergei Kovalyov, in an interview with the German magazine Stern. "Russia will be governed in a draconian manner and will quickly distance itself [from the concept] of a rule of law state " he said.
. Gen Lebed said early today that he would not tolerate any attempt to have the second round of the presidential election cancelled.
Moscow Echo radio quoted Gen Lebed as speaking in reaction to news of the arrest of two of Yeltsin's key election aides, reportedly on the orders of the head of the Federal Security Service, Gen Mikhail Barsukov, and the head of the presidential security service, Gen Alexander Korzhakov.
The two key members of President Boris Yeltsin's election campaign were arrested late yesterday, two television stations reported, saying it was linked to an attempt to stop the second round of presidential elections.
The private NTV station and the state owned ORT channel said that Mr Sergei Lisovsky and Mr Arkady Yevstafyev had been arrested on the orders of Gen Barsukov and Gen Korzhakov.
The reason for the arrests was not given in the special news bulletins of the two stations. It was not known Mr if Yeltsin had been informed.
Reuter adds. The formal announcement of the date of the runoff between Mr Boris Yeltsin and the Communist challenger, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, is expected when the Central Electoral Commission announces final first round results today.
Russian elections are traditionally held on Sundays, and the earliest constitutional date for the runoff had been July 7th or 14th.
