The British government has no plans to postpone its legislation implementing the Patten reforms of the RUC until the next parliamentary session, The Irish Times has been told.
And the Secretary of State, Mr Peter Mandelson, will immediately reintroduce proposals for future 50/50 recruitment of Catholics and Protestants to the new police service if, as seems possible, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats defeat the plan during the committee stage of the Police (Northern Ireland) Bill in the House of Lords.
This was made clear last night amid evidence of growing resistance to 50/50 recruitment by some Ulster Unionists, who say the scheme will "institutionalise sectarianism" in Northern Ireland. With the Liberal Democrats opposed to quotas and reverse discrimination in principle, UUP sources have expressed confidence that a coalition of Lib Dems, Conservatives and crossbenchers could kill the plan as the government battles to get the Bill onto the statute book by mid-November.
However, British sources say Mr Mandelson would overrule any defeat in the Lords and immediately reintroduce the measure in the Commons.
With the standoff over Patten continuing, speculation has been building that Mr Mandelson might avail of Tory opposition to the government's programme in the Lords and "lose" the present Bill. A senior Sinn Fein member last night suggested Mr Mandelson might prefer to drop the Bill rather than proceed without the support of his party or the SDLP. The current Sinn Fein assessment appears to be that Mr Seamus Mallon, the Deputy First Minister, is unlikely to win sufficient changes to enable him to endorse the Bill and the new policing dispensation.
However, the British sources insisted "there is no plan for postponement at all", adding that there would be no advantage for any side in such a move. The sources observed that presentation of a fresh Bill would hit the planned April advertising for the first recruits to the new police service, due to "pass out" next September.
There would also be a knock-on effect on the existing Police Authority, which makes way formally for the new Policing Board in March.
The Alliance leader, Mr Sean Neeson, and the Liberal Democrats are adding to pressure on Mr Mandelson to make further concessions on the powers of the new Policing Board, particularly in relation to financial control. However, informed sources say the Lib Dems will do nothing to endanger Mr Mandelson's Bill.
Despite his suggestion in a Daily Telegraph article last week that he intended to do so, British and Irish sources confirmed that the First Minister, Mr David Trimble, has not reopened the issue of the retention of the RUC name. However, Mr Mallon is believed to be under pressure not to press for an amendment - similar to that withdrawn by Mr Mandelson on July 11th - defining all the "operational purposes" of the newly-titled Police Service of Northern Ireland. Tensions between Mr Mallon and Dublin on this issue are believed to be rooted in the suspicion that, during the May 5th Hillsborough negotiations, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, "gave the nod" to the unionist amendment, subsequently accepted by Mr Mandelson, incorporating the RUC in the so-called title deeds of the new service.
There are reports that Mr Ahern is urging the SDLP and Sinn Fein to accept the present Bill, with further modest modifications, on the promise of a review of the overall implementation of the Patten proposals within a year. Such a review would revisit the vexed question of the continuing powers of the British Secretary of State in relation to those of the Policing Board. In that context there is speculation that Mr Mandelson might shortly spell out his thinking on a possible timetable for the devolution of limited police powers to the Northern Ireland Assembly.
However, in line with Patten, all "national security" issues will remain reserved to Westminster, and British sources say there is no question of the Secretary of State's powers being ceded to a combination of the Policing Board, the Police Ombudsman and the Oversight Commissioner.