A major review of bus services in Dublin has warned that there is a "severe lack of capacity" in the current network and says thousands of commuters in the city will be left without adequate public transport unless there is a large increase in the bus fleet.
It states that a significant number of suburbs are under-served by public transport at present and that traffic congestion has seen average bus speeds in Dublin city-centre drop to as low as 8.4kph on some routes.
The network review for Dublin Bus also states that the Government's ambitious €35 billion Transport 21 plan will not begin to deliver significant new capacity on the rail or Luas system for another five years. It also says that the bus funding element of the plan is the only way of increasing the capacity of public transport in the short term.
It advises that the capital will need 425 extra buses to cater for this demand and that there should be a series of new bus corridors, along with a reorganisation of city-centre traffic flows, to improve journey times.
The cost of the additional buses would be in the region of €150 million.
The report, prepared by consultants MVA for Dublin Bus, has been submitted to the Department of Transport.
Dublin Bus has also applied for €70 million in funding for an additional 200 buses for this year and next year to cater for the increased demand.
According to the network review, the Dublin Bus catchment area will see approximately 57,000 new houses being built over the next five years, "mainly in areas not currently served well by buses".
It estimates that 205 buses will be needed to service these new houses in areas such as Adamstown and other parts of the suburbs.
This, the report says, would provide capacity for an additional 12.5 million bus passengers a year and would reduce the number of car journeys by 5.6 million annually.
A further 220 buses would then be needed between 2008 and 2011 to provide other new services.
The report identifies the lack of bus corridors and dedicated bus lanes in the city-centre as having a major impact on increasing bus journey times, with the average speed of buses declining from 14.6kph to 13.5kph.
The average speeds on some routes, such as those from Blanchardstown, is as low as 8.29kph, which is equivalent to a low running pace for an adult male.
The report notes that the average bus speeds in other major European cities are closer to 20kph.
Minister for Transport Martin Cullen is currently in discussion with Dublin Bus, trade unions and private bus operators on a major reform of Dublin's bus services.
Mr Cullen is considering a package which would see up to 15 per cent of new routes being given to private bus operators, but which would leave existing bus routes under the operation of Dublin Bus.
He would also provide funding for at least 100 additional buses for Dublin Bus in the short term. After 15 per cent of routes are set aside for private operators any additional routes would be open to tenders from both private operators and Dublin Bus.
The plan may face opposition from the Progressive Democrats, who say that they want to see up to 25 per cent of existing routes privatised.
The Coach Transport and Tourism Council, which represents private bus operators, has complained to the European Commission that the subsidies being paid to Dublin Bus and Bus Éireann are illegal under competition law and provide those companies with an unfair advantage.