MIDDLE EAST:Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert is adamant he will not resign and will not call an early election as a result of the findings of a panel investigating the government and military's handling of the 2006 military campaign launched in Lebanon, which publishes its final report today.
But the report, depending on the level of criticism of the prime minister, could spark a political firestorm that would lead to an election and possible political oblivion for Mr Olmert.
It could also have far-reaching consequences for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process that was recently renewed with the intervention of the US president George Bush.
With the publication of the report, all eyes will be on Labor Party leader and defence minister Ehud Barak, who holds the key to the continued existence of Mr Olmert's ruling coalition.
Should the former prime minister withdraw his party's 19 lawmakers, then the government, which has 67 seats in the 120-seat parliament, would lose its majority, precipitating an early election. Last year, after the panel issued a scathing attack on Mr Olmert in its interim report, Mr Barak said he would leave the government if the prime minister did not ultimately resign.
Mr Barak, however, has been cagey, saying he wants to read the final report before deciding what action to take.
The interim report, which was published in April last year, determined that in launching the assault in Lebanon, Mr Olmert was guilty of "a serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence". It sparked calls for his resignation, the most prominent of which came from his foreign minister Tzipi Livni.
Mr Olmert launched the military campaign after Hizbullah abducted two Israeli soldiers on the border with Lebanon. His popularity plummeted at the time as the public held him responsible for Israel's failure to stop Hizbullah guerillas from firing 4,000 rockets into northern Israel. The conflict also exposed the army as unprepared to deal with the threat posed by Hizbullah.
The fighting lasted 33 days and was brought to an end by a UN-brokered ceasefire. More than 1,100 Lebanese and 163 Israelis were killed. Both the defence minister Amir Peretz and army chief Dan Halutz resigned in the wake of the interim report, sparking calls for Mr Olmert to do the same. Some 100,000 people attended a demonstration in Tel Aviv last year calling on the prime minister to quit.
Mr Olmert's aides have been working overtime in recent weeks as they prepare for the political battle that will follow publication of the report.
They have been arguing that if he has to step down or early elections are called as a result of the report, the first casualty will be the recently renewed peace process with the Palestinians.
That message is aimed squarely at Mr Barak, whose centre-left Labor Party is a strong supporter of negotiations with the Palestinians.
Mr Barak might try to reach an agreement with Mr Olmert whereby elections, which are scheduled for November 2010, will be held in a year's time. Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who heads the hawkish Likud party, is way ahead of both Mr Barak and Mr Olmert in opinion surveys. As a result, neither is keen to go to the polls in the coming months.
Another scenario is for Mr Olmert's ruling Kadima party to replace him as party leader and prime minister, with his replacement serving the rest of his term.
With Kadima's poll numbers disastrously low, party members may be tempted to go for this option instead of an early election that could see their party obliterated.