One of the most unpredictable constituencies

Constituency profile/West Tyrone: "We're trying to free Ireland, will you help us?" says Barry McElduff on the doorsteps.

Constituency profile/West Tyrone:"We're trying to free Ireland, will you help us?" says Barry McElduff on the doorsteps.

This is what Sinn Féin believes to be "natural republican territory" and as such, returned Sinn Féin members since the 1950s.

Publicly the party says it is confident of two seats here. Privately there is a big hope that a third can be added. Indeed, it should be defending three seats here already.

That it didn't was down to one of the biggest shocks in recent elections when Independent hospitals campaigner Dr Kieran Deeny not only took a seat but topped the poll.

READ MORE

He since followed that up with a convincing performance in the 2005 Westminster election.

It was an impressive performance for a Co Down man, probably with inbred inclinations towards the SDLP and who had the backing of the Alliance Party. His big personal vote was built on the cross-community anger that local acute hospital services were (and still are) to be situated near Enniskillen and not in Omagh.

Can such a campaign be sustained to give Deeny a return pass to Stormont? He says yes - but his opponents are privately doubtful.

Sinn Féin meanwhile is hoping that a good constituency record and the sense of an incoming tide will help it towards a coveted third seat. It is said republicans were "gutted" after 2003 when they lost out to the unforeseen Deeny factor.

Local MP Pat Doherty has scored noted triumphs over the SDLP here, particularly in 2001 when the highest of high-profile campaigns by Bríd Rodgers earned the party only third place.

Mark Durkan's party started this campaign with two nominees, both from the Omagh end of the constituency and with the incumbent Strabane member, Eugene McMenamin, off the ticket.

That was put right by party headquarters, but this left the party seeking to retain its single quota with a total of three candidates.

Local politics in this campaign are not muddied (if that's the appropriate term) by the involvement of too many Independents or smaller parties.

The Alliance party has formally backed Dr Deeny - allowing others to question his independence - and there are no Greens or Tories.

And there is a republican Independent and Bob McCartney to contend with.

In normal times this constituency ought to read simply as a four seats to two on a nationalist/unionist split, with Sinn Féin and the SDLP slogging it out and the main unionist groups opting to share the spoils.

In reality, it is among the most unpredictable in the North, not in the fight for a final seat, but right at the top of the first preference table.

Can Deeny keep up the momentum for his campaign which many increasingly see as being lost? Or will he suffer the same fate that has been inflicted on so many, but not all, Independent and single-issue candidates throughout Ireland?

OUTGOING MEMBERS (6 seats)

(% of first preferences; quota = 15%)

Kieran Deeney (Ind) 6,158 (14.8%)

*Pat Doherty (SF) 6019 (14.4%)

*Barry McElduff (SF) 5,642 (13.5%)

Thomas Buchanan (DUP) 4,739 (11.4%)

*Derek Hussey (UUP) 3,733 (8.9%)

*Eugene McMenamin (SDLP) 3,465 (8.3%)

*Denotes those also elected in 1998

UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND:Unionists in this predominantly nationalist area have opted for canny tactics in recent elections. It seems they prefer to maintain unionist quotas rather than opt for Independent candidates no matter how pressing the issues raised by such candidates. In 2003 they stayed with the DUP and Ulster Unionists before considering the appeal of Dr Deeny's hospital campaign. There seems little reason to doubt the same will not recur and that the two unionist seats will be shared between the DUP and UUP.

NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND:This relatively new constituency has seen contrasting fortunes for Sinn Féin and the SDLP since its creation. The Westminster seat was once sensationally won by Ulster Unionist Willie Thompson who pipped the SDLP's Joe Byrne who in turn pipped Sinn Féin's Pat Doherty. How things change. This is now among the most solid Sinn Féin territory outside West Belfast and the SDLP ought not to be complacent about retaining their sole Assembly seat here.

WILDCARD:Quite possibly the wildest of wildcards, West Tyrone produced the great shock of the 2003 Assembly election with Dr Deeny topping the poll. Who knows what will happen this time? Dr Deeny did well in the 2005 Westminster election, with more than 27 per cent of the vote. This would indicate that his showing in 2003 was no flash in the pan.