Good morning.
You may have, it is true, possibly heard this before - but today is a very, very big day in Brexit. Boris Johnson will bring his Withdrawal Agreement Bill (inelegantly, but distinctively, known as the WAB) to parliament. At the end of the day Johnson could be on course to pass the legislation and leave the EU by the end of October - or he will have lost and an extension, or a less likely no-deal Brexit, will be inevitable.
The first vote will be on the “second reading” of the Bill - a straight yes/no that will serve as a proxy for approval of the deal negotiated by Johnson last week with the EU. It’s likely to be on a knife-edge, but Downing Street believes it can squeeze through, despite the defeat on a related vote on Saturday.
Some of those who voted against the government on Saturday have indicated they will back the Bill, and reports from London this morning suggest a narrow victory is on the cards.
If it passes, the second vote will be on a “programme motion” - essentially setting out the timetable for the Bill to pass all stages by Friday.
This is a hugely truncated timetable, allowing for only minimal scrutiny of a very complex and controversial piece of legislation. There is no time for an economic analysis - and no need, says Chancellor Sajid Javid because the Bill is “self-evidently in our economic interest” - and no time for the line-by-line consideration that much less important legislation is afforded.
And yet Johnson has a fighting chance of getting it through. Not because anyone thinks this timetable is a good idea - there are drinking games given more sober deliberation - but because MPs are so fed up of Brexit, and the public so furious at the constant shilly-shallying, that many of them would vote for anything now.
If Johnson wins the programme motion vote, he will be on course to achieve legislative success - though the Bill could still be derailed in subsequent votes.
If he loses, an extension is the most likely outcome - in which Johnson will almost certainly seek a general election that most observers think he will win. This is a high-wire act to be sure, and Johnson’s experience on high wires has not always been conspicuously successful.
Here's our lead story. And Denis Staunton's analysis from Westminster.
Meanwhile, in Dublin and Brussels, it's very much wait-and-see.
Dáil voting controversy rumbles on
More news this morning on the controversy that has elbowed its way into the news in recent days.
A day of frantic chivvying of TDs yesterday revealed it is apparently quite common for TDs - while bending the ear of some unfortunate Minister, or other such important public duty - to shout over at their colleagues and ask them to press their button.
Nobody thinks there is anything wrong with this, it seems. Presumably this takes place in front of the noses of staff, Ceann Comhairle, political opponents, etc. (Journalists are very rarely in the chamber for votes). The Houses of the Oireachtas were unable to say yesterday what the rules are, so it is difficult to say if anyone was breaking them.
Meanwhile, no sign of Fianna Fáil TDs Timmy Dooley and Niall Collins, whose, eh, special voting arrangements (Dooley was not in the chamber, and Collins voted for him six times) were first revealed by the Irish Independent on Saturday and triggered the whole brouhaha in the first place. They’ll presumably have to show up in Leinster House today.
Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan was the first to admit he might have done this yesterday. Many other TDs followed. Last night Ministers Eoghan Murphy and Michael Ring and Fianna Fáil front bencher Barry Cowen insisted they were in the chamber while colleagues pressed their buttons.
Cowen said footage showing him entering the chamber minutes later did not show he wasn’t present for the vote as he could have left by another entrance and returned. Ring was similarly bullish. “If the vote was cast in my name I was there, and that’s that,” he said.
Our coverage is here and here. More on this today, you can be sure.
North sees watershed day on social issues
A big day in the North yesterday. At midnight, same-sex marriage and abortion became legal in Northern Ireland, having been legislated for by Westminster in the continuing absence of the power-sharing institutions.
A last-minute bid by the DUP to restart the Assembly to block the move floundered when nationalists refused to take part.
So the DUP, which resists the suggestion the North should be treated differently to the rest of the United Kingdom when it comes to Brexit, wants to maintain a different legal standard on these issues.
And Sinn Féin, which wants an end to British rule in Ireland, led the pleas to Westminster to legislate on these issues for the North. Oh well. Analysis and background here.
Best reads
Don't entertain Boris's mad idea for a bridge, says Fintan.
More Brexit detail: goods travelling from Britain to Northern Ireland must be subject of export forms.
A developer has offered nearly 500 apartments to Dublin city council for social housing. Councillors are up in arms.
Laura Slattery on Facebook's political ads.
Meanwhile, The Irish Times leads the list of nominations for journalism awards. Rather immodest, but as Damon Runyon observed: he who tooteth not his own horn, the same shall not be tooted.
Playbook
Cabinet meets this morning at Government Buildings.
Leaders’ Questions starts the week in the Dáil at 2pm, followed by an order of business that is likely to include questions about the Dáil voting controversy. There’s statements on CervicalCheck and, later, “statements on developments in Spain”.
Light schedule in the Seanad but a busy day in the committees, with housing, Travellers' rights and harnessing Ireland's ocean wealth all on the agenda. Full details of the day in Leinster House on Oireachtas.ie.
But the eyes of Europe will once again be on Westminster. You can watch the proceedings on most of the UK news channels, or directly on the parliamentlive.tv site. We'll have reports all day on irishtimes.com - news, analysis, wit, wisdom, whatever you're having yourself. Tune in. And do have a jolly, Brexity, fruity day.
