With a question mark still hanging over the restoration of the powersharing Executive in Northern Ireland and an end to a unionist majority in the recent Assembly elections, unionism finds itself at a fork in the road.
In the wake of a series of anti Irish language remarks by members of the DUP, including party leader Arlene Foster, Sinn Féin boosted its vote in the Assembly election in the springtime of 2017, and increased to seven the number of seats it captured in the general election in June.
With just 1,200 votes separating the DUP and Sinn Féin at Stormont, this dénouement resulted in a seismic jolt to unionism.
I have been seeking the views of a number of non-elected individuals in various walks of life in the unionist community.
Among them was one Belfast city-centre businessman who was historically on the liberal wing of unionism.
More extreme
“People are becoming more extreme. Moderate people are voting for extreme parties,” he said. “Protestants and unionists didn’t see too much wrong with what Arlene Foster said when she spoke about the Irish language, and compared Sinn Féin to a ‘crocodile’ during the March Assembly election campaign. It was a bit of a joke. It was a bit of a laugh. I don’t think the Protestant community took too much offence at that.
“I am a moderate unionist. I am for same-sex marriage. I am for the Irish language. I am not going to learn it. I go to Spain on my holidays. I would learn Spanish first.
"The middle-class Catholics in South Belfast swung to Sinn Féin in the Assembly election because of the remarks of the DUP's Gregory Campbell about the Irish language and because of Arlene Foster's 'crocodile' remark - and now you are getting middle-class unionists voting for the DUP.
“I would vote DUP to stop Sinn Féin and I am a moderate unionist. I am not a DUP supporter. I feel I am forced to vote that way. I would vote DUP to stop Sinn Féin. I feel strongly against Sinn Féin.
“That DUP vote is a false vote. They are not voting for the DUP. Many of these people would vote for same-sex marriage. It is an anti Sinn Féin vote.”
Totemic significance
A DUP source said, “People are so dug in on both sides now. If the rhetoric had eased June to September, the talks had a chance. Issues have taken on a totemic significance. Sinn Féin kept on with the same drum beat of a single Irish language Act.
“Probably half our voters support same-sex marriage or are indifferent to it - but Arlene is not going to risk anything. She would be mad to take a risk. Arlene has no space.
“To cave in on a single Irish language Act would not be tolerated, and the more people talk about a Border poll the more unionist anger grows.”
A businessman who works in a large rural town in Northern Ireland and who is voting DUP said: “Arlene Foster made a mistake in not standing aside over RHI [the Renewal Heating Incentive Scheme scandal over which Ms Foster presided and which potentially could have left the public exposed to a £450 million (€512 million) bill]. People were disappointed over that.
"The Theresa May £1.5 billion deal which Arlene negotiated gave her some space."
The same source added, "Gerry Adams is always going to be toxic to unionists. He has more baggage than Aer Lingus.
"People are tired of Gerry Adams controlling Michelle O'Neill. She is like Saddam's Tariq Aziz [a reference to Saddam Hussein's chief spokesman during the Iraq war]. I would vote DUP over Michelle O'Neill getting a majority. We are so afraid Sinn Féin will force hard-left socialist views on the people.
“We don’t understand how moderate people, Catholics, faith people, with anti-same-sex marriage views and who attend Mass, run into Sinn Féin’s arms to vote.”
Political football
A Co Down farmer who is a traditional unionist voter said he hadn’t voted for the DUP in the past and will not do so in the future. He added, “I wouldn’t mind having an Irish language Act but they [Sinn Féin] used Irish as a political football.
“The RHI thing did so much harm for me. I am a bit frustrated that they have not stopped their [MLAs’] salaries.”
Former Presbyterian moderator Norman Hamilton, who is a minister in a tough North Belfast constituency, said of the local community: "They have no expectation of success in the talks. They want decent government. I am not sure they care whether it is direct rule or devolution.
“There is deep disillusionment with the vanishing hope devolution produced.”
Asked about the anger in his unionist community over a freestanding Irish language Act, Mr Hamilton said: “It has been hyped up by republicans. The fact is, it is being seen to be more important than critical issues of health and education. Health is apparently dependent on a language Act; and I do understand the relevance of identity with the Irish language as far as I am not a republican.”
As to why unionists polled so well in the Westminster election, Norman Hamilton said, “If you vote, you don’t vote for someone who is going to lose. You vote for someone who is likely to get elected. You vote DUP because you expect them to get elected - but then you disengage with them because you have no expectation of good government.”
People are so disillusioned with the product being offered, “with endless talk of a demand for an Irish language Act. I am not sure Gerry Adams is the bogeyman – Sinn Féin is the bogeyman. There is this talk of a ‘strategy of chaos’. Nothing is let go. Everything has to become a cause. Can we just get on with good government?” pleads the North Belfast clergyman.
All-Ireland republic
In his analysis of Sinn Féin, former economist Hamilton says, “I see a strategy in republicanism in the medium to long term in the context of devolution and Brexit and the issues that matter to Scottish nationalism. The short- to medium-term goal of Sinn Féin is a journey to an all-Ireland republic.
“It is really hard to pin down in the Brexit quagmire what it has brought upon unionism and what the vision of unionism is in the context of a fragmenting union. Scottish nationalists are part of this. Clearly the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is no longer the same animal if the SNP breaks with the union. Where will that leave unionism and Welsh nationalists?
"The term United Kingdom is becoming more foggy and difficult to define. It is hard to roll back history. It is hard to see the unity of the United Kingdom being as overt as it has been in the last century."
Another Presbyterian churchman who regularly crosses the political and religious divides in Northern Ireland flags up a dark picture too within the unionist psyche.
He contends, “Unionism feels that the face of republicanism is hard and sharp like flint. It tends to cut.
“Although republicans talk a lot about reconciliation, what they really mean is assimilation of unionism into the republican vision.”
Defensive unionism
The same clergyman is not afraid to call out unionism: “People who are in the middle who are not defensive are disappointed with defensive unionism which is going nowhere but shrinking slowly. They got a shock with the Assembly election and they came together.
“In unionism there is a desire for political domination. The dominant thesis in unionism is “keep them ’uns out”.
The Presbyterian minister, who worked abroad as a missionary, says, “Middle [ground] unionists are disappointed with ungenerous unionism and see Sinn Féin as presenting the smile of reconciliation, but know it is really about assimilation – we hold onto our vision and draw you in.
“The rhetoric of assimilation denies unionism to have a vision as much as republicanism. The weakness of that assimilation approach is that it denies the fourth principle of republicanism – fraternity – that dignity must be followed by hope.”
How then can republicanism contribute to stability in Northern Ireland in the eyes of this clergyman?
“The main challenge to republicanism is: do you want to make Northern Ireland work? Logic is if you can’t make the six counties flourish for everybody, you won’t make 32 counties flourish for everybody.”
Evidently, unionism continues to feel it has its back against the wall since it lost its majority in the Assembly elections in March, when Sinn Féin came within 1,200 votes of its electoral performance.
In the politics of Northern Ireland's apparent zero-sum game, the former SDLP Foyle MP Mark Durkan argues the restoration of devolution is possible. He told The Irish Times, "I believe it is a better place for Sinn Féin and the DUP to be.
“People will have to grapple with the Brexit factors. Brexit will draw people back to the bandwidths of Strands 2 and 3 of the Good Friday Agreement.
“I do not believe all members of the DUP will accept first-class travel and premium seats at Westminster in lieu of devolution.
Commenting on Sinn Féin’s stance on devolution, Mark Durkan said, “I don’t think Sinn Féin wants Gerry Adams to stand down as leader with the institutions crashed.
“Succession with the institutions down – how will it look? If Martin [McGuinness] had to resign and Adams walks off the pitch with no restoration, what would be the basis for a new leader entering a new administration if they had failed to sustain what they call their project?
"Peter Robinson wanted to be first minister but Paisley had to do a deal for Robinson to go into government with republicans."
Bill of rights
The former SDLP leader says there is nothing to stop a British government introducing a Bill of rights for Northern Ireland if it chooses to do so.
I am told the British government could promote an Irish language Act in the event of direct rule being introduced. Inevitably, DUP MPs would press for amendments to try to block a single Irish language Act.
Legislation on same-sex marriage in Britain could also be introduced in Northern Ireland in the event of direct rule.
Mr Durkan’s logic argues a power-sharing Executive is still possible at Stormont - but the unionism soundtrack appears stuck in the left hand section of the piano, sending out a bleak report.
Eamonn Mallie is an author and journalist
