An economy that is the envy of Europe, at least in terms of GDP growth in recent years, is not translating into votes for Fine Gael, the party that has overseen a revival in our economic fortunes. The party is rewarded with just 23 per cent of first-preference votes in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, its lowest rating since the 2016 General Election.
In contrast, Fianna Fail have held steady on 25 per cent, taking top spot for the first time in three years. The real gainers, however, are Sinn Féin, up seven points to 21 per cent.
The message from voters taking part in this poll could not be clearer: a strong economy is not enough. Voters are looking for hard evidence of our renewed prosperity.
Where do voters want to see evidence of progress? Health is claimed by 40 per cent of voters to be the issue that will most influence how they vote in February. More action on housing is cited by 32 per cent as the most important consideration, meaning health and housing together account for the lion’s share of key voter concerns (72 per cent).
Even Fine Gael voters find it difficult to look beyond health and housing for issues that will shape how they vote in this election.
As a vote influencer, the economy comes a distant third, chosen by just 8 per cent of respondents as their main priority – although we can surmise that voters will focus more on which party has their hands on the economic tiller as polling day nears.
Further down the list of priorities come climate change (7 per cent) and value for money in public spending (7 per cent).
Of the six issues presented to respondents, competence to manage Brexit sits bottom of their list (on 3 per cent), suggesting a proficiency or track record in this aspect of government may not hold a special allure for voters, at least not at this stage in the Brexit process.
In much the same way as there is no consensus yet on which party should lead the next government, voters are divided on who they would like to see as the next taoiseach. Leo Varadkar, who has seen his personal satisfaction rating plummet, wins 24 per cent support, emerging slightly ahead of Micheál Martin on 23 per cent, with Mary Lou McDonald on 20 per cent. Among independent voters – who are not inclined to pick one of their own as the next taoiseach, for practical reasons – there is no obvious choice, with Varadkar marginally ahead of Martin and McDonald.
At this stage, no one party or leader has convinced a significant number of voters that they have the answers to health and housing. If this remains the case, we can expect voters to rely on other criteria, including abstract concepts of trust, integrity and empathy, to help them decide, and for the leaders’ debates to prove decisive as a consequence.
Damian Loscher is managing director of Ipsos MRBI, Ireland
