An election in Ireland, no more than that recently in Germany, will not halt the Brexit process but may throw a small spanner in the sustained Irish diplomatic offensive.
Brexit strategy is unlikely to feature or be contentious in a campaign but an election could temporarily cut across and mute that, so far successful, personal diplomatic offensive on Brexit at leader level at a time when new pressures to ease back on demands on the UK could emerge.
To date the unity of the 26 other remainer states around the Commission negotiating task force strategy in the Brexit talks has been remarkable.
The line has been held, and with ne’er a quibble, it seems. In part that is testimony to the effectiveness of the “love-bombing” by the Irish at leader and diplomatic levels.
The Department of Foreign Affairs memo leaked to RTÉ on Thursday summarises discussions in national capitals and reflects as much - the preoccupation of fellow member states is with the “chaos” in London.
What the memo does not record, most significantly, is any worries in capitals about Ireland’s and the task force’s tough demands on the Border as a phase one issue - that the UK must show in practical terms how it intends to protect the idea of a post-Brexit frictionless before it gets to move to phase two discussions on the future relationship and trade.
That reassurance, it increasingly appears, will not come in time for a decision at the 14th December EU summit.
With the UK still also unprepared to make a significant improvement on its offer on the divorce bill, the Commission has signalled that time to put the issue on the summit agenda may run out next Friday, December 4th.
If, and it is a big if at this stage, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar flies out to Abidjan next week to attend the EU-Africa summit it will not just be a tangible expression of Ireland's commitment to the continent.
Mr Varadkar, as he made clear to journalists in Gothenburg two weeks ago, will also be using the opportunity to engage in personal relationship-building with fellow EU leaders, what might be called a diplomatic “love-bombing”, that is a central part of the Government’s Brexit strategy.
And one which he clearly relishes.
At leaders’ level, and within the European People’s Party which Fine Gael and most EU leaders’ parties are part of, Mr Varadkar has been explaining repeatedly Brexit’s special impact on this State, reassuring, listening, mirroring the work of diplomats in every EU capital and Brussels.
And Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney, is doing the same on Friday at the Eastern Partnership summit in Brussels.
The message is also that Ireland aspires to be the best of EU member states and wants to engage centrally in all the union’s activities. An election will not change that.
