FF will press for minimal agreement framework in talks

In recent days, senior Fianna Fáil figures, including party leader Micheál Martin, have said publicly that negotiations with Fine Gael on government formation would not deal with specific policy issues.

On Sunday, he outlined it thus: “We will agree to a process which can allow a [minority] government to be formed and for that government to have reasonable security based on a fully transparent framework.”

A document will emerge after the talks between the negotiation teams from the two main parties. But it will be nothing like a programme for government or a statement of priorities.

Instead, it will seek to outline the circumstances in which the outside party will not throw the ruling party to the wolves – a so-called “confidence and supply” deal.

In such arrangements, the party supporting from outside agrees that the government will not be defeated if faced with a motion of confidence or on a budget, finance Bill, or social welfare Bill.

It would allow the outside party (probably Fianna Fáil) to retain at least some of its status as a credible opposition party.

For other votes – the reams of the common-or-garden legislation for which defeat is no big deal – it would support or abstain on a case-by-case basis.

Fianna Fáil would obviously favour that minimal framework, but it is unlikely to be favoured by either Fine Gael or the 15 or so non-aligned deputies for whom such an arrangement would not provide a comfort blanket.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Independents will have to come to some arrangements on the tinderbox issues that have the potential to bring down a government.

Irish Water

This is the major one. For many Fine Gael TDs, including Ministers such as

Paschal Donohoe

, it is a red-line issue: they will not tolerate its abolition nor the ending of charges.

Likewise Fianna Fáil, which introduced the concept of charging, has hardened its stance. It wants charges deferred and Irish Water replaced by an agency. A Fine Gael Minister said on Sunday that the differences have been overhyped.

Fianna Fáil agrees with the principle of charging and the Minister argued that a formula could be found – perhaps by the use of waivers – that could accommodate both sides.

USC

This was contentious during the election, but might be easily solved. Fianna Fáil wanted it abolished for those earning less than €70,000. Fine Gael wanted it abolished, but with a clawback for higher earners. The gap is not huge.

Housing and h

omelessness In six weeks of talks, this issue has dominated

. Already there are pledges to move quickly and decisively with ambitious social housing building plans, more supports for homeless families, as well as lowering barriers for first-time buyers.

Extra spending

The

leeway for extra spending is comparatively tight in the first few years of the term of office, with much greater spending capacity in the last two years in office. The effect is that the available funds for the October budget is €500 million. With the ongoing financial pressures in Health this might be problematic. Fine Gael has readjusted the balance considerably towards expenditure. The agreement, if reached, will include no reference to specific budget measures. Instead, it will set out the process and modalities of how the budget will be drafted. This will result in an all-party budget committee discussing and finessing the Department of Finance proposals from early July.

By the time the budget is delivered in proposal, there will be no surprises, as all the measures will have been thrashed out and agreed by parliament.

Scandals

The crises that recur most regularly are those in which a minister is the subject of a massive public controversy, either over a poor decision in office, or because of inappropriate conduct. No agreement can cover such eventualities.

Often they result in a “head on a plate” or, in extremis, the government itself being toppled.