Good morning.
As if there wasn’t enough excitement to contend with these days, what with the budget; the ministerial resignation; discussions between the Taoiseach and Micheál Martin on the future of the Government; crunch time in the Brexit negotiations; the European summit this week; Arlene Foster comes to dinner; Harry and Megan having a baby; and the mouth-watering clash of Ireland and Wales tonight (er, soccer, m’lud); haven’t we only gone and published the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll this morning?
God, but you’re spoiled.
There’s good news for Fine Gael in the poll, which maintains a strong lead over its rivals, though there is little change in the party support figures since we last measured them in April (we have polls in May on the abortion referendum, but they didn’t measure party support).
Our lead story is here. While Damian Loscher delves into the numbers here. My analysis is here.
Bottom line: There’s a constant Fine Gael lead. Since this time last year it has gone from two points to 11 to nine to five and then to eight today. Polls fluctuate, and there’s a margin of error. Things change during a campaign. Fianna Fáil has tended to recover during campaigns. But there’s a pretty consistent trend of Fine Gael leading Fianna Fáil now. That’s one of the reasons why there’s such a push for an election from elements of that party. But . . . Brexit.
Key takeaway, as they say nowadays: the poll will only strengthen the case of those panting for an election in Fine Gael – but the ongoing Brexit omnishambles means that they can’t have one. For now, anyway.
Scenes (I)
An exciting evening for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last night when he got to meet two of his favourite people in the world – Micheál Martin and Arlene Foster. Before his – no doubt – relaxed and convivial dinner with Arlene, Leo and Micheal sat down to thrash out this confidence and supply business.
Harry McGee has the story here.
The two leaders agreed that their crack negotiating teams would begin talks next week. Fianna Fáil has stressed that the review of the agreement must be thorough and detailed – sounds like that could take a while – before any discussion of a future extension of the agreement could arise. Fine Gael wants it all done a lot quicker. So both sides will begin the process with fundamentally difficult expectations. So you can guess how that’s going to go.
Scenes (II)
Those closely following the twists and turns of Brexit – and sure who isn't? – are having a bumper week, with the collapse of negotiations on Sunday followed by efforts by both sides to keep the possibility of a deal alive. Neither indicated a move from their red lines in advance of this week's summit, though, and our front page story is here and Denis's considered analysis piece here.
The Guardian says there is "a frantic 48 hours" left to save the deal.
Foreign ministers meet to discuss the state of the negotiations in advance of the summit, and Simon Coveney will have a private meeting with chief negotiator Michel Barnier on the margins.
The question is, will Barnier recommend a November summit to agree a deal? May meets her Cabinet today, amid talk of a Brexiteer rebellion. She is clearly still gunning for a deal.
Two questions at her end: can she get agree a deal the EU can live with? And then can she get it through Westminster. There’s a lot of moving parts. We’ll try to keep an eye on them today, and for the rest of the week.
Best reads
Conor Gallagher has an account of last night's thrilling presidential debate on Claire Byrne Live, in which the Sinn Féin candidate said she would wear a poppy, no less. Patrick Freyne's take is here.
Fintan O'Toole on how the DUP have allied themselves to people who don't really want them. Gerry Moriarty on Arlene Foster's uncompromising stance.
Lara Marlowe from Paris here.
Playbook
Brexit action in London and Luxembourg (where the foreign ministers meet), with noises off in Dublin and Brussels.
Cabinet meets this morning at Government Buildings. Later President Michael D Higgins will formally appoint new ministers after the mini-reshuffle. Luckily he won’t be too tired after last night’s television debate as he didn’t bother to attend. After that he’s off to Lansdowne Road for the football. Takin’ it easy.
Busy day in the Dáil, which resumes at 2pm with Leaders’ Questions, followed by (pre-submitted)Taoiseach’s Questions, Statements on the European Council Brexit meeting and then Education Questions.
The resumed second stage of the abortion bill is also scheduled this evening. The Seanad is also sitting. Full list, including committees, here.
And that’s it. Today, by the way, is the anniversary of the beginning of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
If you’ve seen the movie 13 Days, you’ll know that for a period the world stood on the brink of catastrophe, but it was averted by men in rooms having meetings. Kind of like Brexit, but with more smoking.
Have an utterly fruity day.
