We are living through a golden period of Canadian-Irish relations, if we are to take the level of engagement between the two governments at face value.
This weekend, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will skip across the border from the United States, where has been holidaying, to Canada for the third engagement between the two governments at prime minister level in four months.
The proximity to the last meeting Varadkar held with Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau – it is just over a month since the Taoiseach flashed red maple leaf socks to cameras to welcome his guest to Dublin – has raised some eyebrows.
After all, Enda Kenny travelled to Canada in one of his last engagements as taoiseach in on May 4th, marked by Trudeau wearing a pair of R2-D2 and C-3PO socks during a meeting with Kenny for Star Wars day. "May the fourth be with you", and all that.
Varadkar returned the favour with maple leaf and mountie anklewear, in a photo opportunity that even his biggest supporters acknowledged was perhaps an expression of political nerdery too far.
As one Fine Gael TD, who supported Varadkar in the leadership contest, says: "It's odd. I mean, locally, I'd be very conscious the style over substance tag is catching a bit. The socks thing was a serious stinker, but he's doubling down. Normal people can't name Trudeau and don't give a damn.
It marked a change from the usual practice of dragooning a visiting dignitary into a pub for a pint of Guinness
“To be honest, it seems to me he’s beginning to subconsciously embrace exactly what people are criticising him for.”
Another photo of the blossoming political bromance with Trudeau – the pair jogging in the Phoenix Park, with Trudeau complimenting Varadkar on his "nice pace" – was judged to have been better received, since it marked a change from the usual practice of dragooning a visiting dignitary into a pub for a pint of Guinness.
Double act
The fact that the Trudeau-Varadkar double act gets its latest outing this weekend begs the question of whether there are matters of such pressing importance that there is almost a monthly Irish-Canadian summit, or if this just a chance for a photo opportunity that suits everyone?
After all, Varadkar is travelling to Canada at Trudeau’s invitation, and the pair will march in the Montreal Pride parade tomorrow morning, allowing both to further cast themselves in the front line of centrist, modern politicians.
“I think the domestic pay-off from being associated with an anti-Trump figure is probably top of the mind,” says another Fine Gael source. “As long as he doesn’t ‘give it socks’ again – that would definitely be overkill.”
Diplomacy dictates Varadkar could not turn down the invitation to visit Trudeau, the leader of a G7 country who is clearly keen on developing a political relationship.
Yet those around the Taoiseach say that the next few months will be crucial in shaping the public’s view of him as leader. The belief is that voters will have largely made up their minds by Christmas.
The “style over substance” tag is not one Fine Gael will want to stick, and Varadkar will have to work to counteract that perception, starting with this weekend. The charge will only be sharpened if the latest meeting with Trudeau is devoid of substance and the trip is seen merely as public relations.
Varadkar has to build up his own relationships with world leaders and cannot rely on previous meetings held by Kenny
Those in government say the Taoiseach, during his bid for the Fine Gael leadership, promised to double Ireland’s international footprint by building relationships around the world and strengthening the Irish diplomatic network.
Strong Irish diaspora
Building an alliance with Trudeau and Canada – an English-speaking country with a strong Irish diaspora, many of whom who emigrated during the recent crisis years – is cast in that light. Varadkar has to build up his own relationships with world leaders and cannot rely on previous meetings held by Kenny, it is further claimed.
One of the main topics of discussion in recent US-Canada meetings has been CETA, the trade deal between the EU and Canada, which will largely come into effect next month.
It will be argued that, post-Brexit, Ireland needs to develop new markets and that CETA provides an opportunity to do so.
Next year's G7 summit will be hosted by Trudeau, and Varadkar will hope his Canadian relationship will be more fruitful
Frank Barry, professor of international business and economic development at Trinity College Dublin, says, however, that Canada is not a major trading partner for Ireland.
According to the Central Statistics Office, Irish exports to Canada last year amounted to €936 million, with imports from Canada valued at €512 million. In comparison, among non-EU countries, Ireland exported €1.3 billion to Mexico, €1.5 billion to Australia, €2.9 billion to Japan, €3.7 billion to China, €6.3 billion to Switzerland and over €30 billion to the United States.
Prof Barry says that Brexit is likely to be “catastrophic” for Ireland’s agri-food sector in particular, and that CETA offers something of an opportunity to partially offset those losses if the sector can sell itself into Canada.
“Every trade deal the EU has engaged in and every aspect of globalisation Ireland has engaged in has been of benefit to Ireland,” he says. The fact that the agri-food sectors in Canada and Ireland are very different provides an opportunity, he says.
Crossing points
CETA is often touted as a model for the future arrangement between the UK and EU, but such a deal would lead to a border on the island of Ireland. Clearly with that in mind, Varadkar will visit the US-Canadian border next week to observe crossing points and customs posts, even as the Government insists it will not accept a border with Northern Ireland.
"Look, these things are never wasted but it depends on the substance of it," says a Fianna Fáil frontbencher of the Varadkar trip to Canada. "The spin of it is to develop new markets post-Brexit, and Canada is obviously relevant with CETA. But we have always had a strong relationship with Canada."
Ireland had, in Canada, another friend around the G7 table. 'Little good it did it in the end,' the Fianna Fáiler adds
The TD says that Brian Lenihan cultivated a close relationship with Jim Flaherty, the former Canadian finance minister, during the years of the economic crisis.
In strengthening that relationship, the Fianna Fáil TD argues, Ireland had, in Canada, another friend around the G7 table. “Little good it did it in the end,” the Fianna Fáiler adds.
Next year’s G7 summit will be hosted by Trudeau, and Varadkar will hope his Canadian relationship will be more fruitful. For domestic purposes, it also needs to be more substantial than photo opportunities and socks.
