Happy 12th of July. In the North, it’s a public holiday, of course. In Leinster House, it’s another busy day.
Busy for a couple of reasons. The Government unveils its Summer Economic Statement later today, an important staging point in the process toward agreeing the budget for next year, to be announced in October.
It’s to be announced in Government Buildings this afternoon, and debated in the Dail tomorrow.
Not alone is it Leo Varadkar’s first major economic statement as Taoiseach, it’s Paschal Donohoe’s first as Minister for both Public Expenditure and for Finance - and the first of the post-Michael Noonan period. It will certainly look different. But will it actually be different? The indications are not that much, at least today.
As both Cliff Taylor and Paschal Donohoe have repeatedly pointed out, all the huffing and puffing about the few hundred million euros adjustment in the budget is slightly ridiculous when you consider the total State budget – also waved through on the day in the estimates – is around €60 billion.
However, the vast bulk of that €60 billion is already spoken for, in wages and pensions for public servants, in social welfare payments, in medicines and maintenance and all the keeping-the-lights-on stuff.
How the Government chooses to allocate the extra resources it has – in tax cuts and spending increases – is not just a key part of political communication for any administration, it’s a window on its political character.
These choices are the essence of politics, and today will tell us more about Mr Varadkar’s Government than he has chosen to tell us so far.
Our report suggests there will be minimal change today to the fiscal space – the scope for spending increases and tax cuts – but Ministers clearly expect more wriggle room come October. Economic growth remains strong, even in the face of the Brexit threat.
Last week we reported discussions are ongoing with the European authorities that if successful would enable the Government to finesse its calculations of the fiscal space and allow more investment in capital projects – and free up some cash for current spending.
But that is unlikely to be evident today.
There’s one more public staging post for the budget choices – the tax strategy papers will be published later this month. Then the process goes behind closed doors, although we’ll do our best to keep you informed over what’s going on behind them.
It’s busy today too because there is a packed Dail, Seanad and committee schedule, as you’ll see from the Playbook below. That’s because the term comes to an end this week, and there is a scramble afoot to clear the decks in time for the adjournment.
Everywhere around Leinster House there is a sense that the break is approaching after a long, arduous and fractious political term. Even Ministers seem halfway between exhausted and demob-happy.
They're completely split on the new drink driving legislation, as Sarah Bardon reports today.
But they don’t really care. They just want to get to the summer break.
Yesterday, on the Order of Business for the week, there wasn’t even the traditional summer adjournment row, where the Opposition pretends to be outraged that the Dail isn’t sitting for a week or two longer and makes a show of voting against the adjournment.
Miriam Lord describes the scene.With the Government unable to impose its will on the Dail, objecting to the recess is a risky business. When Micheal Martin attempted it last Christmas, the Dail ended up sitting a week longer. And believe me, lads, nobody wants that.
