Proposals will put Sinn Fein on the back foot

The genius of the DUP's Devolution Now is that it could work, writes Gerry Moriarty , Northern Editor

The genius of the DUP's Devolution Now is that it could work, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor

The tactical strength of the DUP Devolution Now document is that it will put Sinn Féin and the IRA on the back foot. And that, as Mr David Trimble has demonstrated in the last few years, is when republicans respond.

It also poses searching questions for the SDLP, but the main pressure, which they will refuse to acknowledge for quite some time, but acknowledge they must, is on republicans.

The day before the DUP unveiled its document the prospects of a political breakthrough in the current review of the Belfast Agreement rested on what SDLP leader Mr Mark Durkan called two "crux issues" being resolved: republican and loyalist paramilitarism and whether unionists, particularly the DUP, will share power with nationalists.

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The 24-page DUP paper deals with one of the crux issues by essentially stating that if the IRA ends activity and decommissions then - and ponder on this - Mr Peter Robinson and Mr Martin McGuinness will lead a cabinet of Sinn Féin, DUP, Ulster Unionist and SDLP ministers.

And it will also have the nihil obstat of the Rev Ian Paisley, and, therefore, would surely be saleable to that most difficult wing of the DUP, its fundamentalists.

So, the DUP will share power with nationalists. And remember only last year Dr Ian Paisley was insisting that not only should the IRA disband but Sinn Féin must disband as well. What has that other wing of the party, its pragmatists, put in his porridge?

"It wasn't that we didn't want a Fenian about the place," said the party's main strategist Mr Robinson. "It's that we didn't want a terrorist about the place."

There was no mention of loyalist guns at the DUP press conference yesterday, but the way the DUP views it politicians aligned to loyalist paramilitaries have no prospect of actually governing Northern Ireland.

What's crucial to remember in grasping what Devolution Now is about is that it is a negotiating document. That's why the Doc and Mr Robinson refused to take questions yesterday. This is their opening position, and if the other parties are willing to come to the table then implicitly in the cut and thrust of negotiation is that the document will be modified.

The paper doesn't even address matters like the North-South dimension or human rights, policing and justice. Again, this will be down to horse-trading, and nothing will be agreed until everything is agreed.

Certainly there is one key element of the paper that has no chance of success because it is so contrary to the fundamentals of the agreement. But we will come to that. What's important here is whether the parties will seriously engage with the DUP, not the other way around? It will be difficult for them not to because this paper in idea and tone can't be easily rubbished.

The DUP proposes three models for government, mandatory coalition, voluntary coalition or an Assembly-focused local government-type Stormont administration.

You can just imagine Mr Robinson in clipped tones outlining his concepts to Mr Gerry Adams, through the governments, and speaking directly to Mr Durkan.

"Here's the deal. If the IRA disposes of its arsenals and ends activity then we will go into full government with Sinn Féin. Isn't that reasonable? No. OK.

"Well, how about if the IRA won't do that we will enter into a voluntary coalition with the UUP, the SDLP and Alliance. You can't live with that, Mark, you won't break from Sinn Féin? OK.

"Well, here's a third option. Rather than an executive or cabinet exercising collective responsibility how about executive power resting with the Assembly. That way we would have a form of devolution and all the parties, including Sinn Féin, would have power and responsibility. And should the IRA ever go out of business we could switch to a full Northern executive.

"Come on, now, be reasonable, you can surely live with one of these models?

Don't expect definitive answers from the other protagonists for a while. It takes time to get your head around the DUP sounding inclusive.

The British government reckons there is quite some merit in the proposals. The Irish Government is not saying a lot because devolution is a Strand One issue internal to Northern Ireland, although it is carefully studying the reaction of the SDLP and Sinn Féin.

The SDLP is hedging its bets, while the UUP accused the DUP of letting Sinn Féin "off the hook" on decommissioning. Sinn Féin says this is a crude attempt to revert to unionist majority rule.

Here Sinn Féin has a point. Devolution Now proposes two forms of voting for key issues: the first requires that such motions gain the support of a majority of unionists and of nationalists; or failing that that they win more than 70 per cent of the vote.

The notion of 70 per cent voting is a non-runner because it would exclude Sinn Féin and break the cross-community consensus philosophy of the Belfast Agreement. Mr Robinson knows that this fundamental won't be contravened. The 70 per cent, however, is a negotiating ploy.

But how can Sinn Féin totally reject all the ideas of this document? It might do initially but only by sounding like the DUP of old. Twice last year the IRA did a little but not enough to try to break the political deadlock. Will it do more now?

The genius of this paper is that it could work; it could even eventually persuade the IRA to leave politics to Sinn Féin. And if it doesn't it won't be the fault of the DUP. And who will the rejectionists be then?