US:A new poll shows that President Bush is more vulnerable than many observers had assumed until recently, Conor O'Clery reports from New York
When a Republican group paid for ads attacking Howard Dean in Iowa, they might have been wary about getting what they wished for.
Now that the former governor of Vermont has been reined in as Democratic front-runner, the White House finds itself facing more formidable foes in the form of Senators John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina. According to a Gallup poll published yesterday by CNN and USA Today, both senators would defeat President Bush if the presidential election was held today - Mr Kerry by a margin of 53 to 46 per cent and Mr Edwards by 49-48 per cent.
The survey, taken before yesterday's Democratic votes in seven states, shows that Mr Bush is more vulnerable than many observers had assumed until recently. It also reflects the battering he has taken from a Greek chorus of criticism broadcast from Democratic debates in the last two months. Mr Bush has also had a particularly bad two weeks during which his State of the Union message fell flat and questions were raised about his rationale for going to war with Iraq.
The president just three weeks ago was enjoying a job approval rating of 60 per cent, but is now facing a clear and gathering danger to his hopes for a second term. The Gallup poll shows that both his job approval rating and his support for going to war have dipped below 50 per cent for the first time. The historical precedents are discouraging for the White House: the last Republican president to suffer negative ratings at this stage in the election calendar - Gerald Ford in 1996 - was defeated by Jimmy Carter.
In other potential match-ups in the poll, Mr Bush would defeat retired general Wesley Clark by 3 per cent and Mr Dean by 7 per cent. Now that he has broken clear of the field, the confrontation between Mr Kerry and the president is likely to become more brutal. Mr Kerry has adopted as his war-cry the taunt of Mr Bush to Iraqi insurgents: "Bring it on!" He has shown an eagerness to take the fight to the president, saying on the eve of the poll that Mr Bush should respond to allegations that he did not complete his Vietnam-era service in the Texas Air National Guard, which was not sent into combat.
"Kerry's got a big bloom on the rose," said Matthew Dowd, strategist for the Bush campaign, "and as soon as that wears off, this race is going to be competitive from start to finish." Mark Mellman, a strategist for Mr Kerry, said the poll underscored the opening for Democrats, as people were unhappy with Mr Bush's economic performance, and the failure to find banned weapons in Iraq had "dealt his credibility and/or his competence a real blow".
Exit polls last night showed Senator John Kerry leading in Arizona, Missouri and Delaware, Senator John Edwards leading in South Carolina, and Mr Kerry, Mr Edwards and retired Gen Wesley Clark in a tight race in Oklahoma.