What if John McCain does snatch victory, as is still mathematically possible, asks Michael Tomasky
SO AS we reach the finish line: John McCain's pollster declares himself satisfied that the race is functionally tied in the important states; Barack Obama says "we're winning"; while liberals across the US speak fretfully in the subjunctive tense, daring not to tempt fate by saying anything like "when Obama is president".
Are the liberal caution and the McCain quasi-optimism actually warranted? Is there any way the Republican could still win this thing? The answer mathematically is. . . yes, he could. And it needn't even hinge on eking out a win in Pennsylvania.
Consider the following electoral-college permutations. Obama wins all the states John Kerry won in 2004, for 252 electoral votes, along with Iowa and New Mexico, two states where he appears to be comfortably ahead and would add 12 to his total for 264 (270 is needed to win). But suppose it stops there and every other battleground state tumbles toward McCain - Ohio and Florida, where Obama's leads are fairly narrow, but also Virginia and Colorado, where his leads are larger but not insurmountable. These are, after all, states that are long accustomed to backing the Republican candidate. In this scenario, McCain wins 274-264.
Let's go it one better. Say McCain does manage a victory in Pennsylvania, where his campaign is circulating fliers comparing him to Hillary Clinton, that seductress of the state's oft-limned blue-collar voters. If he did snare that state's 21 electoral votes, McCain could then afford to lose Virginia (13) and Colorado (nine). Still holding Ohio, Florida etc, he would win 273-265.
Let's try one final scenario. Pennsylvania ends up in the Obama column, as does Colorado. But McCain's pollster has recently spoken of mysterious "internal numbers" showing Iowa (seven votes) to be somewhat up for grabs. So an electoral cocktail that includes Iowa and Virginia but not Pennsylvania or Colorado would give McCain 272 electoral votes and the presidency.
Though mathematically possible, how likely are any of these scenarios? Throughout this election, I've relied most regularly on the websites RealClearPolitics and fivethirtyeight.com for polling averages, so let's see what they have to say about the margins in these states as of yesterday. In Pennsylvania, both have Obama ahead by 9.8 per cent. Making up 10 per cent in four days would be a remarkable feat, though not unheard of. Obama is six points ahead in Virginia and Colorado, and has an 11 per cent lead in Iowa. Now let's recall that all the above scenarios are possible only if McCain wins Ohio. In what we call the Buckeye state, the websites have Obama ahead by about 5 per cent. McCain doesn't have a lead in any major poll in any of these states. He would truly need a tsunami to hit that would shift the race in his direction by five to 10 points in the final days - a swing very nearly without precedent.
But still, Obama supporters' emotional continuum runs from cautious to outright neurotic. As the days dwindle down to a precious few, as Kurt Weill put it, caution is well-advised. But neurosis would seem to be an indulgence. It's a good thing that the candidate himself doesn't suffer from it. - (Guardian service)