Analysis:The question is whether the party has gone too far, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
On occasions, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern resembled Gay Byrne doling out gifts in his Late Late Show heyday: 2,000 extra gardaí here, 4,000 extra teachers there and tax and social insurance cuts for everyone in the audience.
Faced with growing Fianna Fáil nerves, Mr Ahern on Saturday had to show supporters that he has a plan to win; convince voters that he and Ministers have the fire for another term, and also prove that the State's finances will be safe.
The question now is whether he has gone too far in a speech laden down with promises and goodies, damaging Fianna Fáil's ability to portray itself as the economy's safest pair of hands.
The playing of "the prudence card" had merit, given voters' traditional belief in Fianna Fail's economic skills, and increasing worries about interest rates, foreign multinational jobs, and so on.
Ideally, Fianna Fáil would have preferred to hold off on detailing its tax commitments for another few weeks, as it sought to drive home the message that the Opposition is ready to buy votes.
Last Wednesday Minister for Social Affairs Séamus Brennan, criticised the Opposition for making promises on "an unprecedented scale" and insisting that Fianna Fáil would not be matching them.
Brennan is not a man to put up his finger to check if it is raining, so he was clearly operating under instructions, or, at the very least, he believed he was putting out the party line.
However, Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen came to the conclusion that they could not wait; that the Opposition has already been far too successful at pitching its tax and spending proposals.
Last November, Mr Ahern addressed a raucous gathering of 5,000 Fianna Fáil delegates. He had emerged triumphant from the payments controversy; the polls were benign. Much was right in the Soldiers of Destiny's world.
Today, the sky is somewhat more clouded. The trend in both private and public opinion polls is narrowing between the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats and Fine Gael/Labour coalition options.
The issue with Fianna Fáil's tax plan is not so much that it is unaffordable, because it probably is very affordable if the economy stays reasonably healthy; but, rather, that its criticism of the Opposition's spending plans is less than justified.
If such is the case, then the argument may drift away from economic issues and on to services, quality of life and other issues, and here the Government is on far less solid ground.
In all, Fianna Fáil estimates that its package will cost €840 million a year over the lifetime of the next administration - a figure which means that some of the commitments contained therein will not come all at once, or together.
The decision to match Labour's pledge to cut two percentage points off the standard rate tax band may help to stem a drift in support for Pat Rabbitte; and, also, make it easier to do a deal with Labour afterwards if that is necessary.
The promise to cut one percentage point off the top rate, to 41 per cent, was equally inevitable given that the Minister for Finance, Mr Cowen, had committed to making the cut, figures permitting, in his budget day speech in December.
Backing up this tax equity platform, Mr Ahern said tax credits and bands, which have so often been eaten into by inflation in the past, would, in future, rise in line with average wage increases.
Typically, party delegates cheered the tax cuts pledges to the rafters, ignoring the far more expensive cut to indexing bands and credits. It was ever thus. Voters have never understood the difference. Just ask Labour.
The decision to halve PRSI from 4 per cent to 2 per cent has merit, particularly since the party intends to abolish the existing ceiling so that contributions are paid on all income, and not just the first €49,000, as happens presently.
Everyone earning €225,000 will be better off, Fianna Fáil insisted, though one can be sure that those earning anything remotely near that figure have long since learnt the benefits of aggressive tax planning.
Unwilling to concede stamp duty cuts, Mr Cowen has cleverly turned the argument on the Opposition, and, indeed, the Progressive Democrats by warning that cuts would hit house prices.
For months, the argument has centred on 50,000 house buyers. Mr Cowen clearly believes that the 1.5 million people with equity already built up in their homes who do not want it put at risk, are persuadable that change should come slowly.
Regardless of what Fianna Fáil says publicly, most of its TDs and supporters believe they will be back in power for a third term - but not with the Progressive Democrats or, at the very least, not with them alone.
Acknowledging that seats will be lost - up to a dozen - they still believe that the other coalition permutation cannot make up the numbers if support for Sinn Féin and Independents holds up.
In addition, Fianna Fáil believes that one key aspect of the campaign has yet to even begin: the presidential-style battle to be fought out between Mr Ahern and Fine Gael's Enda Kenny.
It is a contest the party believes Ahern will win.