ANALYSIS: Not for the first time in this tribunal, someone is lying. But, in this case, the stakes are higher than ever, because the conflict of evidence pits the tribunal's star witness against half a dozen government ministers, writes Paul Cullen.
When the final report is written, the tribunal will have to find that either property developer Mr Tom Gilmartin is telling the truth about his claimed meeting with Fianna Fáil grandees in February 1989, or the politicians are telling the truth.
If Mr Gilmartin is right, then the only conclusion is that some of these politicians are lying. This group does not include Ms Mary O'Rourke, the only former minister to recall meeting the millionaire developer in Leinster House at this time. Neither would it include Mr Bertie Ahern, who says he cannot recall any such meeting.
If Mr Gilmartin is wrong, however, then the tribunal will have been wasting its time and this whole module will have been a disaster. The fact that Mr Gilmartin has been given immunity from prosecution would only increase the embarrassment.
The nub of the matter lies in Mr Gilmartin's allegation that he was approached by a man outside the meeting and subjected to a demand for £5 million to be placed in an offshore account.Bad enough that something like this could happen anywhere. But for it to happen, as alleged, in the corridors of Leinster House would be appalling.
Yesterday's opening statement from tribunal lawyer Mr John Gallagher SC skated over the main areas of evidence to be heard in the coming weeks. Undoubtedly, the witness evidence will bring fresh revelations, but the overall impression from the statement was that there was little that had not been alleged, leaked or openly stated before yesterday.
Could it really have taken six years to establish that Mr Pádraig Flynn did get £50,000 from Mr Gilmartin, that the developer met senior politicians on a number of occasions, and that Mr Liam Lawlor played his usual hustle-bustle role as a middle-man between Mr Gilmartin and the ministers?
At least the tribunal has got further than the gardaí, whose investigations into Mr Gilmartin's allegations now seem threadbare (though they were not helped by his refusal to sign a statement). And Mr Gilmartin has a number of contradictions of his own to explain. He says he does not know who the man was who tried to extort £5 million from him in Leinster House, yet on two occasions in the late 1980s he identified Mr Lawlor as the person. He says Mr Lawlor demanded a 20 per cent share of the Bachelor's Walk development he was promoting with an English company, Arlington Securities. Yet on a previous occasion he said Mr Lawlor was seeking a 5 per cent stake.
In his evidence, he recalled his disappointment on coming out of an alleged meeting with Mr Ray MacSharry because the politician seemed "less than enthusiastic" about his plans. Yet he also records Mr MacSharry - who has denied meeting the developer - as saying that the government would move "heaven and earth" to get his plans going.
Arlington told gardaí they never gave any money to Mr Lawlor, nor did he seek it. However, it is clear now this is not true and that Mr Lawlor got over £50,000 from the company, either directly or through Mr Gilmartin.