Tragedy if talks break down over sequencing, says Clinton

President Clinton is hoping that his intervention in the Northern Ireland talks may help narrow the gap between Sinn Fein and…

President Clinton is hoping that his intervention in the Northern Ireland talks may help narrow the gap between Sinn Fein and the UUP just as he did over a year ago for the Good Friday agreement.

As the talks dragged on last night into their fourth day, the President said he had been in constant contact with the parties.

He has had three long talks with the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, and also lengthy phone conversations with the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, and the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, within the space of about 12 hours and while he was travelling to and from Chicago.

He had not spoken with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, during this period but his National Security Council officials had been in constant contact with the Government delegation at the talks.

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"I offered my suggestions for possible resolution of the sticking points," Mr Clinton said yesterday during a press conference with President Mubarak of Egypt.

The prospect of the talks failing and the Belfast Agreement falling apart appals the President, who constantly cites the agreement as a model for conflict in other parts of the world such as the Middle East and the Balkans.

"To call it a tragedy," if it failed over the "sequencing" issue of decommissioning, "would be a gross understatement," he said.

Admitting that decommissioning and the setting up of the executive were a very difficult problem for the parties, he said "it would be very hard for the world to understand if this breaks off since everyone is agreed to the fundamental elements of the Good Friday agreement."

There had been a referendum where the Irish people voted for for the agreement and then an election where the Irish people voted for leaders under it, he said. "So where you have a situation where the agreement has been ratified twice and the leaders are saying that all the elements in it have to be complied with, a breakdown over `sequencing' would be very hard for the rest of the world to understand", an appeal that has been echoed by Mr Blair and the Taoiseach.

The President's public position on decommissioning has been cautious in order not to give the impression of taking sides for or against Sinn Fein or the UUP. As far back as last December, when all the Northern Ireland political leaders who signed the Belfast Agreement came to Washington for a peace award, Mr Clinton emphasised they all had to respect "the spirit and the letter" of the agreement.

Observers interpreted this as him telling Mr Trimble he should not attach extra conditions to the agreement over decommissioning while telling Mr Adams that some decommissioning was understood to be in the spirit of what was agreed.

Last week, before the latest round of talks began, Mr Clinton referred to the "legitimate problems of Sinn Fein with the decommissioning issue". But, he added, "there has to be a resolution of it that enables the leadership of the Unionists, Mr Trimble, and others who have fought for peace, to survive, to sustain their position, and to go forward and get everybody on their side to honour the Good Friday accords."

This was a clear acknowledgment that Mr Trimble had serious problems with the hardline members of his own party and an appeal to Sinn Fein to take that into account.

Curiously, Mr Clinton went on in a BBC interview last Monday to assume that Mr Trimble had already accepted the compromise proposal that there would be a firm timetable for decommissioning instead of sticking to the "no government without guns" position.

As Mr Clinton put it: "I believe that on that score Mr Trimble is satisfied in these talks with whatever commitment is made, and I think they should give it a chance to work."

For the President, the Unionists would have a legitimate sanction against the Sinn Fein members of the executive if the decommissioning timetable was not observed. "One thing I would say to the Unionists is that they can always walk away from this if the commitments aren't made at a later date . . . They can bring this down at any time by simply walking out if the commitments aren't kept."

This has been the President's basic position, and he seems to be finding it hard to understand that it cannot satisfy both sides.

From this it follows that niggling details of "sequencing" should not be allowed to destroy the progress that has been made in achieving the Belfast Agreement and the gradual start to the reforms it will bring about to ensuring peace in Northern Ireland.