When divorce was introduced just 50.3 per cent of voters were in favour of it - now 75 per cent would vote Yes in a referendum, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
Ten years after the introduction of divorce in Ireland by the narrowest margin in any referendum in the history of the State, the vast majority of people would now vote yes if a referendum was held today, according to the findings of the Irish TimesTNS mrbi opinion poll.
This week marks the 10th anniversary of the coming into force of the Family Law (Divorce) Act, following on from the yes vote in the second divorce referendum held in November 1996. The measure was introduced by John Bruton's rainbow government and was not opposed by Fianna Fáil.
Nonetheless the referendum was only passed by a wafer-thin margin of 50.3 per cent to 47.7 per cent. Out of more than 1.6 million votes cast there was just a difference of slightly over 9,000 votes in the final result.
It marked a turnaround from a divorce referendum 10 years earlier when the no campaign had an emphatic triumph. That attempt by Garret FitzGerald's Fine Gael-Labour government to introduce divorce was opposed tooth and nail by the then Fianna Fáil leader Charles Haughey and by most of his front bench.
Despite opinion polls before the 1986 campaign showing a majority in favour of divorce, it was rejected in the referendum by the decisive margin of 63.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent.
Now, 10 years after the introduction of divorce, 75 per cent of voters say they would vote in favour of divorce if a referendum were held now, compared to just 16 per cent who say they would vote no and 9 per cent have no opinion or don't know how they would vote.
The figures indicate that the issue is no longer the contentious one that divided Irish society for almost three decades. The findings also show just how much Irish society has changed since the foundation of the State.
Divorce emerged as an issue in the very early days of the Free State's existence. Attempts by a small number of wealthy people to get divorced by having private bills pass by the Dáil, as had been the practice in the House of Commons, provoked an immediate outcry and in 1925, Dáil standing orders were revised to rule out any further such bills.
Eamon de Valera's 1937 Constitution went a step further by imposing an unconditional ban on divorce which meant the Dáil could never legislate for the issue without a referendum to change the Constitution.
The issue returned to the political agenda in the late 1960s when agitation to remove the constitutional ban got under way and divorce was finally legalised in February 1997 following the second referendum.
In both divorce referendums the likely effect on women was a major issue but 75 per cent of women say they would vote for divorce now compared to 74 per cent of men.
The poll indicates there is no political constituency for revisiting the issue of divorce.
Supporters of all political parties are strongly in favour of divorce and would vote yes if there was a referendum now.
While Fianna Fáil voters were marginally less enthusiastic than Fine Gael and Labour voters, only a small minority of voters in each party said they would vote no if a referendum was held now.
Not surprisingly, voters in Dublin are more strongly in favour of divorce than those in the rest of the State.
Voters in Munster are the least enthusiastic supporters of divorce with 70 per cent saying they would vote in favour, while 21 per cent would vote no and 9 per cent don't know.
The figures for Connacht and Ulster are almost identical but the rest of Leinster is closest to Dublin in the strength of the yes vote.
All age groups with the exception of the over 65s are also strongly in favour.
In social categories based on income and occupation, there was one interesting variation. Those on higher incomes were strongly in favour of a yes vote and lower-income voters were not far behind, but farmers were distinctly cooler on the issue with just 51 per cent saying they would vote yes and 35 per cent saying no. This was by far the closest result among any group.
This attitude carried through when voters were asked if they thought that the introduction of divorce had undermined the institution of marriage or not. Farmers were the only group in which a majority thought that divorce had undermined marriage with 45 per cent of them saying that it had done so as against 37 per cent who said it had not.
Among voters as a whole a clear majority, 64 per cent, said that divorce had not undermined marriage while 24 per cent thought it had. The pattern of responses was similar to that on the issue of divorce itself with people living in Dublin, the young and those in the better-off social categories most strongly of the view that divorce had not undermined marriage. Older people were more inclined to think that it had.
Among the supporters of political parties there were some wide variations with Green supporters more inclined to say divorce had undermined marriage. Thirty-two per cent of party supporters thought it had done so, compared to 27 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters and 14 per cent of Labour supporters.