It feels as if the French presidential election is taking place this autumn rather than next spring, because much of the electorate is convinced that the winner of the November 20th and 27th primary for the conservative party Les Républicains (LR) will defeat Marine Le Pen, leader of the extreme right-wing Front National (FN), in the run-off next May 7th.
That is why many left-wing voters intend to register to vote for the former prime minister Alain Juppé, while FN voters are tempted to cast ballots in the LR primary for the former president Nicolas Sarkozy, whose positions are close to Le Pen's.
The campaign started this week, with the first of three televised debates among seven LR candidates. The conservative party, which has been riven by deep personal animosities, came out of it strengthened by a show of unity.
All candidates promised to support the winner of the primary. Despite a few barbs, they conveyed a sense of wanting to work together.
The 2½ hour debate was the programme most watched on Thursday night, with 5.6 million viewers.
In a Sofres poll among voters who watched the debate, 36 per cent said Juppé won, while 22 per cent said Sarkozy performed best. The remaining candidates were Bruno LeMaire and François Fillon, tied for third place at 11 per cent, Nathalie Kosciusko- Morizet, at 3 per cent, a virtually unknown parliamentary deputy called Jean-Frédéric Poisson at 2 per cent, and Jean- François Copé at 1 per cent.
Oldest
At age 71, Juppé is the oldest candidate. In a week when President François Hollande appears to have committed political suicide by making rash comments to journalists, Juppé promised to “restore the dignity of the presidential function and the authority of the state”.
Hollande today addressed a letter to eight leading justice officials and professional organisations, in an attempt to calm the anger of the French judiciary over derogatory comments made by him. “I profoundly regret what was felt as a wound by judges,” he wrote.
The LR candidates managed to avoid the word “Bygmalion”, the scandal over the financing of Sarkozy’s 2012 campaign that deeply indebted the party and led it to change its name from UMP to LR.
Bruno LeMaire, aged 47, is the “young Turk” of the party. He addressed television viewers saying: “If you want everything to continue as before, you have what you need on this stage.” Alluding to past scandals involving Messrs Juppé and Sarkozy, LeMaire said the LR candidate must be “exemplary”.
“I’m ready to show my police record to Bruno,” Juppé quipped. “If the French believe my mistake disqualifies me, they won’t elect me.”
In 2004, Juppé was convicted of using Paris city funds to hire party workers, under the purview of his mentor, Jacques Chirac.
Sarkozy conveyed the tension of a penned bull, grasping the edge of his lectern, his nostrils flaring. Except for Poisson, all other candidates had served as his subordinates in the past, and it seemed to pain him to be placed on an equal footing with them.
Shared responsibility
“We governed together for five years,” Sarkozy said, putting his rivals in their place, as well as implying that they shared responsibility for his record in office.
Jean-François Copé, who Sarkozy blamed for the Bygmalion scandal and pushed out of the party leadership in 2014, made the most direct attack on “Sarko”, regarding the former president’s unkept promise of a “rupture” in 2007. “This rupture, unfortunately, didn’t happen,” Copé said. “We didn’t get rid of the 35-hour working week. We diminished the number of policemen and raised taxes and we lost in 2012.”
Fillon had a fraught relationship with Sarkozy when serving as his prime minister. At a recent rally, Fillon alluded to ongoing scandals involving Sarkozy, saying: “Can one imagine Gen de Gaulle under investigation?”
Sarkozy said remarks like Fillon’s “did not honour those who made them . . . My criminal record, after 37 years in politics, is virgin.” The former president has repeatedly been cleared of criminal charges, but remains under investigation in several other cases.
The broad lines of the candidates’ economic programmes are similar. Except for Kosciusko-Morizet, all would abolish the wealth tax. All would dramatically reduce government spending and the number of civil servants, raise the retirement age and lower social charges on employers.
There was disagreement regarding the imprisonment of some 12,000 suspected radical Islamists on the “S” (for security) list. “The question is not if there will be another attack, but when,” Sarkozy said.
“I want preventive internment of the most dangerous people on the list.” He estimated their number at “several hundred”.
“Locking up everyone on the “S” list is probably not the right solution,” Juppé said.
