Momentum is building for a resumption of peace talks on Ukraine, after the European Union and United States noted an apparent softening of Russia’s stance towards the Kiev government and its conflict with pro-Moscow separatists.
Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko said a preparatory video conference should take place today and tomorrow between representatives of Kiev, Moscow, the rebels in eastern Ukraine and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. "I hope this group will be able to meet on Sunday in Minsk," Mr Poroshenko said during a visit to Poland.
He made the announcement after a four-way call with the Russian, French and German leaders, in which the Kremlin said they agreed that talks on "implementing the Minsk pact" should resume "as soon as possible." An agreement reached in the Belarusian capital in early September reduced but failed to halt clashes in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where fighting since April has killed more than 4,600 people and displaced about 1 million.
The Minsk deal laid out a framework for a settlement in eastern Ukraine, including provision for the largely Russian-speaking areas to enjoy broad autonomy from Kiev, but continued bloodshed meant no move was made to implement the plan. Kiev has recently halted bank services and payment of all benefits and state wages in rebel-held areas, while also starting talks with western allies to buy arms that would strengthen government forces’ in their fight with the rebels, who unofficially receive heavy weapons and reinforcements from Russia.
The last week saw fewer clashes and casualties, however, and Russia's financial woes may have made it more amenable to a negotiated solution to conflict in what Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has called "Novorossiya (New Russia"). At a Brussels summit today and tomorrow, EU leaders are expected to announce tighter sanctions on business activity in annexed Crimea, in steps likely to be co-ordinated with Washington.
"We shared the impression that there might be some elements that could make us think that there might be some more willingness to solve the conflict on the Russian side, on president Putin's side," EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said yesterday, after talks with Mr Poroshenko. US secretary of state John Kerry said on Tuesday night – after the rouble had plunged in value – Russia had "made constructive moves in the last days". "There are some indications that whether it is the line-of-control negotiation or the calm that is, in fact, in place in a number of places, the withdrawal of certain people, there are signs of constructive choices."
Business-like relations
Russian foreign minister
Sergei Lavrov
said this week that Moscow would never give up the Crimean peninsula it annexed from Kiev in March, but otherwise supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and he called Mr Poroshenko the “best chance Ukraine has” and a man with whom Russia had “business-like relations”.
All eyes will be on Mr Putin's annual televised press conference today for signals about his intentions in Ukraine, where Moscow officials claim that a Russian-hating fascist junta ousted Kremlin ally Viktor Yanukovich in February. Mr Putin accuses the US of fomenting the pro-western uprising with EU help, to turn Ukraine against Russia, bolster Nato and weaken Moscow's influence in former Soviet territory.
In Warsaw yesterday, Mr Poroshenko reiterated that Ukraine’s non-aligned status “could not guarantee our safety and territorial integrity” and that he would ask parliament to annul it and plot “a course towards integration with the sphere of Euro-Atlantic security”. “When Europe’s political balance and stability have been destroyed, we should look for new ways to guarantee our mutual security,” he added.
