There is a real sense, with the election of Donald Tusk as president-elect of the European Council, that Donald Rumsfeld's "Old Europe" and "New Europe" are one. Twenty -five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and 10 years after Poland and others joined, the psychological distinction in the minds of many of the continent's own citizens, let alone US secretaries of defence, can be banished once and for all as the EU makes a landmark tilt eastwards. The EU 28 have their first leader from the former communist east. And Poland is centre stage, where it has always known it should be.
Symbolism apart, however, Tusk, who has a reputation as a tough and astute political dealmaker, a bridge builder, takes the job of setting and steering the EU leaders' agenda at a critical time for the union on multiple fronts – Ukraine and Russia, energy, economic stagnation, and the looming possibility of UK disaffiliation. His instincts as an economic liberaliser should make the latter easier to deal with, although Poland under his leadership has drifted somewhat closer to Germany and the mainstream of the Europhile EPP.
In terms of the interinstitutional politics of the EU his appointment and that of Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini as head of the EU's foreign policy operation speak volumes about the determination of EU leaders to maintain the political ascendancy of member states over both the Commission and its bureaucracy and the foreign policy apparatus. In creating the post of permanent Council president in the last round of treaty reform member states, under the guise of improving the efficiency and cordination of policy formation, were in fact seeking a counterbalance to the power of Brussels.
And by appointing from their midst a tough and well-regarded prime minister of one of the larger states to the job, the union’s leaders were making clear who will be setting the agenda. The Commission may have the sole right to initiate legislation, but its role, and Mr Juncker’s, in truth will be implementation. A relatively inexperienced foreign policy boss sends the same message. The answer to Kissinger’s famous question about who to ring when you want to talk to the EU, is clear – Donald Tusk.
That shift in the power dynamics of the EU in recent years is, albeit largely unarticulated, of concern to the smaller member states like Ireland. More power to the Council inevitably means more power to the larger member states – among whose ranks Poland is now very firmly established – and makes the next round of appointments, to the various Commission portfolios, all the more important. Dublin will be only too well aware that, although a commissioner sheds his or her national jersey on appointment, a "peripheral" job at the commission table means a further marginalisation for the smaller member states. The pitch on behalf of Phil Hogan for the important agriculture post is as much about securing that central place at the table as about any notional benefit his influence might bring to Irish farmers.