The mood of uncertainty in Spain surrounding Catalonia's planned referendum on independence has deepened in recent days, with divisions becoming apparent within both the separatist and unionist camps.
The nationalist regional government of Catalonia is preparing to stage a vote in October on secession from Spain, despite Madrid’s insistence such a move would break the law.
On Tuesday, Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont unveiled details of a referendum bill he and pro-independence allies have been preparing. "We can guarantee Catalans that we will vote on October 1st," he said, adding that independence will be declared within 48 hours if the result favours it, and a regional election will be held if not.
On Thursday, the Catalan issue was at the centre of a long-awaited meeting between prime minister Mariano Rajoy and the leader of the main opposition Socialist Party, Pedro Sánchez. Both men agreed that the referendum is illegal and should not be allowed to go ahead. But in the wake of the meeting, differences between them became apparent, with the Socialists calling on Mr Rajoy to engage more seriously in dialogue with the northeastern region, instead of threatening it with legal action as he has tended to do thus far.
Pluri-national country
The Socialists recently irritated the governing Popular Party (PP) by formally embracing the concept of Spain as a “pluri-national” country – suggesting a degree of sympathy for Catalan nationalist grievances. After Thursday’s summit, they also warned that if the prime minister fails to unblock the territorial stalemate, they will present legislative reforms in a bid to do so.
“It doesn’t seem altogether clear that Pedro Sánchez and Mariano Rajoy were at the same meeting,” noted commentator Rubén Amón, who added that “Catalonia is going to become a new and dangerous political and electoral battlefield.”
But while the unionist parties struggle to maintain a united front, the pro-independence camp is facing a similar challenge.
On Monday, Mr Puigdemont sacked his business minister, Jordi Baiget, who had expressed doubts in an interview about whether the October vote would take place as planned. "The [Spanish] state is so strong that we probably won't be able to hold the referendum," Mr Baiget told El Punt Avui newspaper,
A broad political front ranging from the centre right to the far left is leading the independence drive and controls the Catalan parliament with a narrow majority. Mr Baiget’s comments angered many, particularly more radical members of the pro-independence left.
However, his remarks also reflect a belief many have that Catalonia could be heading for a repeat of the non-binding independence referendum the region held in 2014. Also deemed unlawful by Madrid, that saw a low turnout although just over 80 per cent of participants voted for secession.
A recent poll showed that 70 per cent of Catalans plan to vote in October and of those, 65 per cent want independence.
