For a triumphant Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the victory in Sunday's hard-fought referendum – albeit close – is more than an electoral endorsement of his status as Turkey's most powerful man.
It is the culmination of a decade-long effort, often propelled solely by his own ambition, to tame the country’s institutions into obedience through his own steadily increasing gains at the ballot box.
With the military back in its barracks after a failed coup last year, and the infiltration of the bureaucracy by followers of an exiled cleric being slowly dismantled, the victory delivers Erdogan an enfeebled parliament and not one rival to his vast, new executive powers.
He will immediately resume leadership of the Justice and Development Party, abandoning the fig leaf of impartiality that the current constitution requires of him and, by 2019, have greater immunity from prosecution, choose judges and decide budgets, while appointing his own vice-presidents and have the choice of dissolving parliament.
But the narrowness of his victory – he had publicly hoped for as much as 60 per cent of the population to back him – exposes the polarisation in Turkey. The country remains as divided as when he won the presidency – just over half the population supporting him, with the other half resigned to futile opposition. The AK Party failed to get as many Yes votes as it had expected, deputy prime minister Veysi Kaynak told reporters.
Opportunity for opposition
The closeness of the vote provides a rare window of opportunity for the country’s opposition, especially with the three largest cities, Istanbul,
Ankara
and Izmir, rejecting Erdogan’s referendum. It was the first time he has lost an election in Istanbul, Turkey’s economic and cultural powerhouse, since 2002.
The constitution this referendum amends was voted in with more than 90 per cent of the national vote in 1982 following a military coup in 1980. Erdogan won on Sunday with more than 51 per cent of the vote.
But a victory it is. It immediately challenges his opposition – from the Republican People’s Party to the rebel factions of the nationalist movement – and in time abolishes the post of the prime minister, currently occupied by a handpicked ally, Binali Yildirim, after Erdogan dethroned a more independent-minded predecessor.
It is exactly what Erdogan promised his voters – rule by one man, their man, unfettered by political infighting, coalition governments and rival power-bases. He sold it as freedom from the past, and has promised a resurgent Turkey with a stronger economy, more security and the political means to resolve crises.
But few expect Erdogan to transform his pugnacious style of governing to achieve the compromises that could repair a frayed relationship with Europe, the US or even his own Turkish colleagues.
"Turkey's western orientation is finished," said David L Phillips, at the Institute for the Study of Human Rights at Columbia University, and an ex-senior adviser to the US state department.
Erdogan’s aides say the president intends to continue the state of emergency that has helped deliver this narrow victory.
His AK Party, meanwhile, will soon start preparations for elections in 2019, which will activate the amendments passed on Sunday.
"Yes wins, but prepare for war," tweeted Cem Kucuk, a journalist close to the government.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2017