Syrian president Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday vowed to adhere to the cessation of hostilities and grant amnesty to army deserters who relinquished their weapons while his army, backed by Russian air power and Iranian ground units, continued to implement a military strategy set by Syrian, Russian and Iranian commanders.
Their primary targets are al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State, whose fighters and positions have been excluded from the ceasefire. However, factions attached to the Saudi-sponsored opposition High Negotiations Committee (HNC), which are bound by the ceasefire, have been targeted for co-operating with Islamic State and al-Nusra. This has prompted the HNC to complain the ceasefire has been nullified.
The government's strategy in Aleppo is now to concentrate strength in the north of the city to obstruct insurgent access to reinforcements and equipment from Turkey.
It is plausible that Damascus believes the negotiations may end the insurgent occupation in the east of the city, thus avoiding the need to commit forces to a bloody confrontation there.
This has allowed the Syrian army to shift its focus to Isis-held Raqqa and advance to the administrative border of Raqqa province. The aim of this offensive is to pre-empt rumoured ground operations by the US-led coalition against Islamic State, also known as Isis, in Raqqa.
Coalition members Turkey and Saudi Arabia, main backers of the armed opposition, have offered to deploy troops in an anti-Islamic State campaign which, Damascus and Moscow fear, could also be conducted against the Syrian army, risking clashes with Russia's air arm and Iranian ground forces.
Fundamentalist groups
The Syrian air force has bombed insurgents, said to include al-Nusra elements, in Daraya, southwest of Damascus. Daraya is the last of the capital’s southern suburbs held by insurgents.
They have moved back and forth between Daraya and neighbouring Muadamiya, disrupting its truce and “reconciliation” agreement with the government and have threatened a nearby military airbase.
Syrian army forces have driven ceasefire-bound insurgents but allied with al-Nusra out of Latakia province, a government stronghold, and into Idlib province, held by a collection of fundamentalist groups and al-Nusra. The immediate objective of the army is to retake Jisr al-Shughour just across the border in Idlib.
US secretary of state John Kerry has said a monitoring "construct" will be created to ascertain whether military action targets Isis or al-Nusra and are therefore legitimate without mentioning penalties for strikes on other groups.
