Iraq’s new parliament will on Sunday hold its first session since the party headed by reformist Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr won the most seats in October’s election.
The constitution decrees the speaker, to be elected at this meeting, must be a Sunni and his deputies a Kurd and a Shia.
Parliament will have 30 days to choose a Kurdish president, who will name a Shia prime minister recommended by the Sadrists, who secured 73 seats, one-fifth of the 329.
Sadr intends to split the Shia bloc, which had dominated Iraqi politics since the 2003 US occupation.
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Instead of forming a power-sharing cabinet combining all major Shia factions with Sunni and Kurdish parties, he is determined to establish a 165-member “majority government” committed to his nationalist, anti-corruption, reform and anti-militia programme.
He could secure his aim by winning over the largest Kurdish and Sunni parties and most independents.
If Sadr succeeds, he could meet the aspiration of outgoing president Barham Saleh "for a genuinely strong and active government" which could "carry out reforms necessary for a stable and prosperous Iraq" at a time Iraqis argue their country has become a byword for mismanagement and corruption.
Hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets since 2019 to protest and demand the overthrow of the sectarian system bequeathed to Iraq by the US.
Mercurial
While Sadr commands the loyalty of poor urban and rural Shias, many politicians distrust him as he is mercurial and inconsistent. While decrying foreign involvement in Iraq's affairs, he retains prickly relations with Iran. He maintains a militia but calls for the dissolution of pro-Iranian militias and campaigns against graft although the Sadrist health minister and officials are accused of ravaging hospitals and failing to tackle Covid-19.
While building his coalition, Sadr will have to contend with the Shia co-ordination grouping comprising pro-Iran parties headed by ex-premier Nouri al-Maliki and militia-affiliated politicians who represent a total of 59 seats but could gain the backing of factions and individuals rejecting Sadr’s call.
Ahead of the parliamentary session, Sadr attempted to divide this group by inviting three leaders, whose militia-tied parties lost seats, for discussions in the Shia holy city of Najaf. His aim was to cut out Maliki who, during his premiership, discriminated against and attacked Sunnis, making them easy prey to al-Qaeda and its offshoots. There is no evidence that Sadr’s ploy has worked.
Cabinet formation has previously taken months of negotiations and horse-trading and has produced governments responsible for the country’s dire economic, social and political plight.
