Ireland is not the only near neighbour watching the UK's Brexit debate with a little more than dispassionate curiosity. The 85,000 people on the Isle of Man do not have a say in Thursday's referendum – but the result could have a big impact on the island.
"I am really concerned about what happens to us if the UK votes to leave," Allan Bell, chief minister in the Isle of Man government told The Irish Times. "The link to the EU has been fundamental in the development of our economy."
Crown Dependencies
The Crown Dependencies – the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey – are not part of the UK or the European Union. But under arrangements established when the UK joined the then European Community, the self-governing islands all have free trade with the EU without being a member of the union.
The Crown Dependencies have no VAT but they are inside the EU customs union.
Bell is concerned that a vote to leave could see the Isle of Man effectively locked out of EU market for years.
“The UK could be turmoil for a long time after a Brexit. It will take time to renegotiate trade deals with the EU. The Isle of Man will be at the back of the queue when it comes to any renegotiation,” says the chief minister.
“We have a big manufacturing industry on the Isle of Man that is dependent on free access to the EU market,” he added.
Like the Isle of Man, Jersey (population 100,000) and Guernsey (population 65,000) are low-tax economies. Both islands also have a heavy reliance on financial services. Fishermen in Jersey and Guernsey have their own separate arrangements with the UK and European Union.
Guernsey chief minister Gavin St Pier says that, in the event of a Brexit, the island needs “to make sure our interests and relationships are protected”.
“We regard this as a matter for the UK and the electorate of the UK but we are not in any way seeking to change our formal relations with the EU,” says St Pier.
“If there was a Leave vote, then Protocol 3 (which gives the Crown Dependencies access to the EU) would fall away so there is some work to do to make sure we are not forgotten.”
Unlike Gibraltar, the Crown Dependencies do not have a vote in Thursday’s referendum. The decision not to extend the franchise angered many islanders.
Vote denied
For the first time in their history, the three Crown Dependencies took up their ancient right of petition to the Privy Council. That claim was dismissed by the queen in May.
“We are being denied a chance to vote on our future. This is a great mistake by the UK government,” Tony Webber, a former member of the States of Guernsey, who was one of the petitioners, said last month.
Allan Bell believes that Brexit could have a knock-on effect far beyond the small island dependencies.
“The big fear from my point of view is the wider impact [Brexit] could have on the EU itself,” says the Isle of Man chief minister
“It could crack open faultiness across Europe. People have forgotten that while the EU can be bureaucratic, it has been a real positive force.”