AMERICA/CONOR O'CLERY: Almost unnoticed in the hoopla over the Democratic primaries was a by-election for a seat in the US Congress that took place this week in Kentucky.
The outcome is rattling the White House as much as the polls showing that George W. Bush is trailing John F. Kerry. The seat was held by a Republican who resigned to become governor. It should have been a shoo-in for Republican candidate Alice Forgy Kerr. She campaigned as an anti-tax, anti-abortion pro-gun supporter of President Bush, who invited her to the White House for a campaign photograph. House Speaker Dennis Hastert spoke at her rallies in Kentucky's bluegrass country. Money was no object. But former state attorney general Ben Chandler beat her easily to become the first Democrat since 1991 to win a Republican-held seat in a special election. The implications of this, the first federal election of 2004, are far-reaching. The turnout it appears was driven by dislike for the president. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identified 30,000 voters in the district who disliked Bush and made sure they got to the polls to "send George Bush a message". Billy Piper, Kerr's campaign manager, said she was also hurt by the intensity of the Democratic primary campaign, which dominated political news coverage. A "handful of guys who wanted to be president" were hurting the president every day and that directed a new-found enthusiasm or anger towards his candidate, he said. Democrats in Washington are claiming that Chandler's victory shows that the party can, after all, win in the south.
The exposure Democratic candidates are getting in the media is helping to change perceptions nationwide about George Bush, but the president is the author of his own misfortunes. Since the capture of Saddam Hussein in December, his credibility has steadily eroded over a range of issues, from the hyping of weapons of mass destruction, the worsening mess in Iraq, a budget that did not include the cost of the war, a record deficit, an understatement by $130 billion of prescription drugs reform, an overblown prediction of new jobs this year, and a general weariness with fear-mongering. Major initiatives like sending people to Mars and reforming immigration law have been greeted with stony silence by Republicans. Economic conservatives are unhappy with increased federal spending and evangelicals are furious at his failure to condemn forcefully the gay marriages in San Francisco. Every week it seems the White House is accused of new deceptions. On Thursday, 60 influential scientists, including 20 Nobel laureates, accused the administration of systematically distorting scientific fact to advance policy goals on the environment, health, global warming, mercury emissions, biomedical research and nuclear weaponry.
Conservatives like Pat Buchanan are blaming the neo-conservative agenda adopted by George Bush for the fiasco in Iraq (he predicts that James Baker will be brought back and Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz will be dumped). Moreover some Republicans fear that Vice President Dick Cheney will hurt the ticket because of his controversial ties to Haliburton and his future has become a lively topic. The president has also been hurt by questions about his apparently incomplete National Guard service - coming at a time when the Pentagon is sending reluctant National Guard units to face roadside bombs in Iraq.
The next issue to get an airing - just watch - will be Bush's share sell-off when he was a director of Harken Energy in 1990, just before it tanked.
Does all this mean that George Bush will not get re-elected this year?
Ray Fair, a Yale economist who for three decades has predicted presidential elections using economic data, says his formula shows Bush will be returned by a landslide. But this may be the year for discounting the old adage that an incumbent doesn't get ousted when the economy is doing well.
While the Bush-Cheney re-election effort loses its footing, the Democrats are enjoying a revival. Polls show a new respect for the party.
Democratic factions have made their causes secondary to the goal of dumping the president. The labour unions who embraced Howard Dean have rushed to endorse John Kerry, even though he is for free trade. The gun control lobby is behind him, despite his love of hunting. Gays and lesbians are cheering him on though he opposes gay marriages.
African American Democrats are ignoring his rival Al Sharpton.
Consumer advocate Ralph Nader, whose third party candidacy helped defeat Al Gore in 2000, will get neither love nor money if he runs again this year (he will announce his decision tomorrow).
A month or so ago it was looking good for George Bush. Now it's not. The dynamic has changed. Mr Fair is wrong and Mr Bush will in fact be beaten in November. You read it here first.
Comedian Jay Leno's take on the gay marriage controversy: "President Bush said the only time two men should ever be in bed together is when one is a politician and the other is a lobbyist."