Letter from Beirut:While pundits and politicians on both sides of the barricades proclaim Lebanon's current crisis to be the most dangerous since the country's second civil war, youngsters from government and opposition camps are partying.
They have been undeterred by the current political turmoil, where the pro-Syrian opposition, led by Hizbullah, has brought hundreds of thousands on to the streets pressing for a national unity government.
Every night village youths gather round bonfires laid in cinder block hearths, sip tea, play loud music, chant slogans, chat and snack on nuts and boiled cobs of maize. Within earshot of Riad Solh in neighbouring Gemayze, Beirut's golden youth from mainly Muslim west and Christian east Beirut pour into French, Italian, and Japanese restaurants and cafes along Rue Henri Gouraud. Gemayze has taken over from beautifully reconstructed downtown, shut tight by the protest, as the chic place to wine and dine in style. Beirut seems to be caught in a power struggle between the Christian-Sunni-Druze combo installed by Gouraud and marginalised Shias. Led by Hizbullah, defender of the Shias, the protesters demand a share in power: a national unity government and a veto on policy.
Without a veto, they argue they have no say. Their ministers withdrew from the cabinet last month, complaining they were not consulted on major issues. Prime minister Fouad Siniora and his camp, defending privilege, refuse to capitulate and charge the opposition with attempting a coup d'etat. But the stand-off does not involve a straightforward contest between Shias and the rest because Hizbullah has made alliances with Christian, Druze, and Sunni politicians with significant constituencies. Huge painted portraits of these figures vie for space on walls and lamp-posts with poster photographs of Siniora loyalists.
The premier calls the protesters agents of Syria and Iran; the opposition says Siniora is taking orders from the US embassy. Once again, little Lebanon is at the mercy of regional and international contestations. Lebanon lends itself to outside forces because it is a country divided by competing visions of itself. Today's government represents Lebanon as an outpost of the West, the opposition as an Arab country whose fate is bound to that of its neighbours. The government has the support of not only the US and Europe but also of the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf emirates who are absolutely terrified of the rise of Lebanon's Shias. They fear a repeat of post-war Iraq where the US installed Shia factions reliant on Tehran which seeks to export its Islamic revolution to other countries. But Lebanon is not Iraq and Hizbullah cannot be compared to the violent Shia bands who are tearing Iraq to pieces.
Hizbullah has vowed to exert pressure only through civil disobedience. The government has deployed thousands of troops round the capital but refrained from confrontation. No one wants another civil war. The country was severely damaged by Israel's 34-day onslaught in July and August. Bridges and highways were bombed, factories destroyed, farms laid waste, and urban neighbourhoods and villages devastated.
Rebuilding has begun. In the Dahiyeh, the heavily targeted southern suburb of Beirut where Hizbullah is based, rubble from felled apartment blocks is being cleared and unsafe structures are being demolished. Bulldozers pile up clumps of cement strung together on rusted iron rods before loading the rubble on trucks which dump it on huge mounds along the highway to the south, blocking the sea view. Hizbullah is carrying out the work and providing the residents of the quarter with funds to rent flats until their homes can be rebuilt.
In the south, Qatar is funding projects in four villages; Hizbullah is dealing with the rest. The government, which received billions in aid, has given very little to the victims of the conflict. This is why Shias turn up in their hundreds of thousands at Riad Solh. Their Christian, Sunni, and Druze allies, excluded from the government, simply want to share power.
Yesterday, as Arab League envoys proffered a compromise proposal to end the crisis, an uncompromising US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice stated, "I want to make it very clear that the future of Lebanon is not an issue for negotiation with anybody." This intervention could not only prolong the stand-off but also prompt the opposition to step up pressure on the government through strikes, shutting down essential services and commerce.
Some 73 per cent of Lebanese want a settlement now and they know it must be based on the traditional "no victor, no vanquished" formula which has enabled Lebanon to survive political assassinations, invasions, and two civil wars over the past 63 years.
