SPAIN: "The war in Iraq was a disaster," José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero told a post-election press conference. "And the occupation likewise, and it is only creating more disasters . . . You cannot fight terrorism with wars." Minced words don't seem to figure on the political menu of the new man in Madrid, swept to power by Sunday's unexpected victory for the Socialist Party (PSOE), reports Paddy Woodworth in Madrid
Nothing underlines more sharply the extent of the change in Spain than Zapatero's prompt declaration that he will withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq by the end of June, unless the UN has a full mandate in that country by that date. And nothing has attracted more media and diplomatic attention.
It should not have been a surprise, given that this was one of the central planks of Zapatero's election campaign, allegedly against the wishes of some of his advisers. But planks have been known to fall off election platforms, once the votes they sought to attract have been counted.
So somehow it was a shock, even to some of his supporters, who suddenly had to consider the possible consequences of arousing the anger of Washington. There was something refreshing, though, about a politician who does not prevaricate before taking a difficult decision.
The reality, however, was that Zapatero must have known he had to take this decision immediately, or not at all. If he had hesitated for even a few days, the pressures on him to continue postponing it would have become enormous, and the palpable sensation among many Spaniards that their country is embarked on a new and better road, despite last week's terrible events, would evaporate.
As it is, the decision is not quite as radical as it seems. The outgoing prime minister, José María Aznar, had already set June 30th as the date for a review of the position of Spanish troops, though this was a formality and there was no suggestion that he was considering a pull-out.
Zapatero has already been accused of giving in to terrorism by proposing to withdraw troops. The president of the Italian parliament's foreign affairs committee, Gustavo Selva, described the decision as a "goal for Osama bin Laden".
Sections of the US media have already started something approaching a hate campaign against him, and no doubt this will be the view taken in the more neo-conservative sections of the Bush administration. The US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, however, has said he is "very sure that Spain will continue to be totally committed to the war against terrorism". In any case, Zapatero is no doubt hoping that John Kerry and the Democrats may win next autumn's election, leading to a new Iraq policy from Washington itself.
The charge of yielding to terrorism is a cheap one, since Zapatero was so strongly committed to this policy before the Madrid bombings. Arguably, it would be a much greater victory for the terrorists if he was to abandon a policy which has democratic legitimacy. It is important to remember that the invasion of Iraq was not only deeply unpopular with the Spanish left and centre, but also with many supporters of the Spanish right, according to the Aznar government's own opinion polls.
It is also necessary to set this policy in the context of Zapatero's broader European and international vision. "He is not making a dramatic solo gesture about Iraq," a diplomatic source told The Irish Times yesterday. "He sees it as part of returning Spain to its place at the heart of the European Union, and putting the UN back at the centre of international affairs." From this point of view, it was Aznar who was the maverick, in putting Spain out on an international limb by his staunch support for Bush and Blair in the run-up to the war.
Some commenters suggest that Zapatero's condition that the UN should be in charge in Iraq, if Spanish troops are to stay there, could be interpreted broadly, and leave some wriggle room between Zapatero's position and the expectations of the Bush administration. Others, however, point out that he has been quite categorical that the UN should have full control of all troops in the country, an idea that is regarded with something close to horror in Washington.
One other aspect of Zapatero's new departure probably deserves more attention than it has received. This is the emphasis given to normalising relations with Morocco. The breakdown in this key link between Spain - and by extension between the EU - and the Arab world was chronic under the PP government, and on one occasion the two countries came close to full-scale war over conflicting claims to an uninhabited rock, Parsely Island.
Restoring mutual respect, while supporting the development of democracy and the protection of human rights in the Magreb, has gained new urgency with the news that the Spanish police believe the March 11th attackers were linked to Moroccan extremists. Positive moves towards improved contacts with Islamic cultures may be at least as important in combating terrorism as the disposition of troops around the world.