Today’s elections are the starting line for change. The results, whatever they are, will reset politics here, and a new European Parliament triggers the nomination of a Commission president and an Irish commissioner.
All of this will culminate in a general election. In parallel, there is a British general election on July 4th which has consequences here and on November 5th there will be an presidential election in the US, the most fateful since Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860 crystallised American division on the eve of civil war.
There won’t be another American civil war, but a Trump presidency would be disruptive in times already dubbed the era of crises. The economic crash, mass migration, Brexit, Covid, Ukraine and inflation have reshaped the world in the space of 15 years. In tandem, the cultural change and technical impact of technology is only beginning to get under way. Aside from events that are coming thick and fast, the great issues of our times are ageing, climate, and Generative AI.
The irony is that for lots of us, it’s a lovely life. And why wouldn’t it be? We are living longer and have less to care about. Specifically, since we joined the then EEC in 1973, we are living 11 years longer, and halved the birth rate from 22 to 11 new babies per 1,000 of population. Add in full employment and foreign holidays ... and what’s not to like? Surprisingly a lot of us are unhappy.
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The Ireland where we all went to Mass and the match together is gone. Communal activity and public conversation are as likely to be online as in person. Life is lived through the prism of glassy screens and seen in artificially intense colours. There is unprecedented prosperity at almost every level of the community, but not much sense of belonging and a great deal of uncertainty. It is an irony that as we arrive in the final hours of a campaign, there hasn’t been much political focus or public interest in the underlying issues. Whether we abstain or vote, our decisions will matter a lot over the next five years.
The lifestyle we enjoy – but which doesn’t make us as happy as the advertising promises – has taken a terrible toll on the planet. There was an important story this week in the UK. The Asian hornet, which arrived from France, has for the first time survived a British winter. Eating up to 50 honey bees a day, they can devastate native pollinators and biodiversity.
Climate denial has mutated from opposition to derogation, delay, and the off-laying of responsibility elsewhere. Our decisions today will quickly count.
The complexion of the new European Parliament matters, as it is co-legislator with the Council*, and its approval is needed to seat a new Commission and its president. Immediately if indirectly, it will inform the political context around the Nature Restoration Law on June 17th. Proposed by the EU Commission, and passed by the parliament after intense public campaigning, it stumbled as it was about to be rubber-stamped in the council, which represents the national governments. It was classic procedural politics to delay and derail, as a few national governments went offside at the last minute. Ten days from now, ministers will meet again for a further effort to push it over the line. It is touch and go, and probably the last change for the foreseeable future.
There will also be intense activity around the nomination of a new commission president. Since Ireland joined the EEC two presidents stand above all others in importance. One is Jaques Delors 1985 – 1995, and the other is Ursula von der Leyen since 2019. In the crises since then, she delivered more substantive change than any other president since the departure of Delors. Amid the fevered speculation about her future that starts in earnest on Monday, what is really at stake is policy, not personalities. The future of the EU Green Deal, which is driving decarbonisation, depends on the shake-out and so does an essential framework for decision making for the future.
At home, Ireland will within weeks nominate a new EU commissioner and that will impact particularly Fianna Fáil, which will decide who gets the job. Either Tánaiste Micheál Martin takes it and goes, or he gives it to Finance Minister Michael McGrath and leads on. Alternatively, he may ask another because McGrath can’t be spared. In that scenario the former Attorney General Paul Gallagher, who twice served in government, could be a candidate. That then leaves the only other decision of consequence – the timing of a general election. Fine Gael full of new energy wants to go before the clocks go back on October 27th. Fianna Fáil and the Greens have not agreed to that. There can’t be a disorderly demobilisation, and so it is all to play for.
* This article was amended on June 7th 2024