In the coming months, the government will have to make a number of critical national security decisions.
The first will be how to persuade the incoming Trump administration that Ireland is not a soft touch when it comes to industrial espionage – that hostile states such as China and Russia are not stealing intellectual property for potential “dual-use”, military purposes. There have already been concerns raised by the outgoing Biden administration that Ireland lacks an advanced vetting system. Without such a system, Irish nationals and residents risk being excluded from working on private sector projects that US intelligence services conclude are sensitive to national security.
A severe thaw in relations between the US and Europe also has a potential impact when it comes to European defence. It is no accident that the United Kingdom has taken an ambitious lead role in a new non-Nato defence initiative, the Joint Expeditionary Force, a key component of which is to protect subsea cables in northern Europe – Operation Nordic Warden. European countries such as the UK, Denmark, Norway, Iceland and the Netherlands know that they will have to look increasingly to their own defence capabilities, easing an excessive reliance on the United States, to deter and defend against Russian or other threats to European security. Ireland, severely lacking in naval assets, will have to decide whether it wants to join this or another European initiative to actively monitor and protect the critical infrastructure off the Irish coast that enables transatlantic communications.
Ireland is also facing a significant European-wide increase in far-right and Islamist extremist radicalisation. The horrific violence in Gaza and in Lebanon has been drawn upon by Islamic State and al-Qaeda to foment grievance and generate recruits. The director general of the UK’s domestic intelligence service, MI5, recently reported an alarming increase in incidents of radicalisation of children under 18, individuals with “with only a tenuous grasp of the ideologies they profess to follow”, and in some cases viewing Islamist extremist material as well as far-right conspiracy theories and disinformation.
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Ireland is not immune to these trends. Michael McElgunn, the assistant commissioner in charge of the Garda national crime and security intelligence service, has warned of the myriad rising threats he and his officers face, especially from extremist actors and the spread of disinformation. Last year a teenager, whom gardaí believe was exposed to Islamic State-linked material online, was charged with the attempted murder of Defence Forces chaplain Fr Paul Murphy. The Director of Public Prosecutions has directed that the boy be sent forward for indictment at the Central Criminal Court.
Europe is experiencing a wave of foreign state espionage. Much of this, as McElgunn observed, emanates from Russia. Moscow’s intelligence services increasingly subcontract acts of sabotage and assassinations to criminal gangs in a range of European countries. However, Russia is not the only threat – Iran’s security services have cultivated links with the Kinahan organised crime cartel over many years. In recent years a wave of Chinese overseas police stations – aimed at influencing and controlling its diaspora – were uncovered in a range of European cities, including one in Dublin.
[ It’s a mistake to dismiss the Cobalt allegations as Carry on SpyingOpens in new window ]
At the end of December the Sunday Times reported that an unidentified member of the Oireachtas allegedly recruited by Russian intelligence – given the name “Cobalt” – was suspected of having access to “highly sensitive information on defence policy from serving and retired military personnel”. Taoiseach Simon Harris has not responded directly to the allegations, except to comment that Ireland was “not immune” to hostile Russian intelligence activity. Micheál Martin told that Dáil that as Minister for Defence he had “never received a security briefing stating that there is a spy in the Oireachtas”.
The Cobalt claims underline a number of critical security vulnerabilities that will only increase over time if not addressed. The first is a lack of advanced vetting and other counter-intelligence capabilities. Vetting and the proper classification of government material are integral to the security of any democracy that wishes to protect itself from unwanted intrusion by foreign intelligence services.
The public deserves some reassurance that the Cobalt allegations are being addressed. As in other European countries, it is possible to put some information into the public domain about intelligence threats without compromising operational security. A new government should state whether the Cobalt allegations, as reported by the Sunday Times, are accurate. Second, depending on the verification of Cobalt’s alleged activities, some indication should be offered as to whether significant damage to national security has occurred.
Finally, the government should offer an assessment of whether current legislation is fit for purpose when it comes to espionage offences. If not, it should commit to remedying this national counter-intelligence deficit. Public representatives or officials recruited as agents by foreign intelligence services may still cause significant damage to democratic institutions even if they do not gain access to secret information. Ireland is now increasingly a target for diverse and complex foreign intelligence activity. In order to build resilience, public confidence and awareness of threats to national security, the government should also announce a wide-ranging review of intelligence structures and capabilities.
Dr Edward Burke is assistant professor in the History of War since 1945 at University College Dublin
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