The appearance of Conor McGregor at the White House on St Patrick’s Day is a warning to the Government parties to get their act together and agree on a strong and widely respected candidate for the presidential election in November. McGregor has expressed an interest in running for the office, and while he will struggle to get on the ballot paper, there is every chance that some other disruptive candidate will make it into the contest. Already Peter Casey, who ran last time and came second, has announced that he will be running on a platform that blatantly breaches the constitutional limits on the president’s role.
President Michael D Higgins has already torn up constitutional convention during his two terms by expressing opinions on local and international affairs that are way outside his remit. Some of the interventions have coincided with Government policy, but others have been quite blatant criticisms. In order to avoid a damaging confrontation, the government response to these interventions has been to pretend they didn’t happen. However, the chickens will really come home to roost if a candidate standing on a platform committed to challenging the government’s authority is elected in November.
The Government has a big enough challenge on its hands to devise a coherent approach to the rapidly changing international situation, as well as coping with the range of infrastructural problems that threaten to derail economic progress at home. The distraction of a constitutional battle with a disruptive president is the last thing the country needs.
If the general election last November is any guide, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would each struggle to win more than 20 per cent of the vote in a presidential contest and could fall far short of that as previous presidential contests show. In a broken field, there is no knowing who might come to the top on the final count after lower candidates are eliminated.
Conor McGregor’s presidential hopes are a warning to the Government parties to unite behind a strong candidate
Micheál Martin has finally shown his backbone. He’s going to need it
Ireland’s neutrality is widely regarded as absurd and complacent
Legal culture that underpins frivolous objections has to be reined in or the country will stagnate
The obvious solution for the Government parties is to pick one strong candidate who can mobilise the 40 per cent or more of the voters who broadly support the status quo. While no senior figure has yet declared an interest, one potential candidate who could attract cross-party support is the former minister Heather Humphreys.
The Monaghan woman was a highly competent and successful minister and her down-to-earth style made her one of the most popular members of the last government. She would have a strong appeal in rural Ireland, while her solid record in office and her upbeat, sunny personality would make her a truly formidable candidate. An added bonus is that election of a member of the Presbyterian community from the Border region might foster better relations between North and South.
The big question is whether Fianna Fáil would agree to back a candidate from Fine Gael. One good omen is that it has happened before in the other direction. In 2004, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny announced that he was supporting incumbent Fianna Fáil president Mary McAleese for a second term.
He received some criticism in his own party for the decision but it was a wise move that enabled him to avoid wasting time and money on a losing campaign. It also signalled that the office was above party politics. That is an approach that is now required more than ever.
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil opted out of the last presidential election, seeing little point in challenging the incumbent Michael D Higgins. As pragmatism has ruled the approach of both parties in the past, there is even more reason for such an approach in the dangerous world we now inhabit.
While there is some speculation that former taoiseach Bertie Ahern fancies the idea of being president, he will probably want to avoid the risk of a campaign that would inevitably rake up old controversies and damage his current status as a respected elder statesman.
There has also been some speculation that NUI Senator and former minister for justice Michael McDowell might consider a tilt at the Áras. He has shown himself to be a formidable referendum campaigner, leading the charge which resulted in the crushing defeat of the proposed changes to the family provisions in the Constitution last year. To run for the presidency, he would probably need the support of one of the big parties. The former leader of the Progressive Democrats was once a member of Fine Gael and served as a minister in a Fianna Fáil-led government so could potentially muster cross-party support.
The left-wing parties and Sinn Féin have had preliminary discussions about putting up a joint candidate but so far there is little sign of an agreed strategy. It is likely that there would be strong opposition in the Labour Party to backing a candidate approved by Sinn Féin.
There were six candidates for the presidency last time out and seven in 2011 so it is likely that a number of people will win the support of 20 members of the Oireachtas or four local authorities to have their names on the ballot paper. The Government parties need to come up with a plan before it is too late.
