Throughout Northern Ireland’s history, its demography has been watched with hope and fear by nationalists and unionists, and even with some interest by outsiders. So it is perplexing there has been so little interest in the demographic bombshell dropped in January by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra).
For the first time, it predicted an absolute fall in the region’s total population. This unexpected future will commence shortly: the population will peak at 1.95 million in 2033, up from 1.92 million today, then enter long-term decline. Numbers will have fallen back to 1.93 million by 2047, as far ahead as the projection runs. These figures include net migration, which will continue to rise steadily. The natural decline, defined as births minus deaths, begins in 2031.
A drop of 20,000 over 14 years might not sound dramatic, until it is realised the predictions themselves are being rapidly revised downwards.
Nisra, the official statistics body for Northern Ireland, produces an annual 25-year projection based on its most recent population estimates, generally from three years before.
Last year, it was still expecting growth to continue uninterrupted, albeit tailing off from the mid-2030s, to reach 2 million by 2046.
In previous years it has predicted lower final totals but still with continuous growth.
Nisra also publishes more speculative 50-year projections, with upper and lower estimates based on a range of assumptions. These now show the population falling to between 1.9 and 1.5 million by 2072.
Any decline would be extraordinary and unprecedented in modern times. The last census to record a fall in the area now comprising Northern Ireland was in 1891.
Predicted decline is also unique in the UK and Ireland and unusual across western Europe. Populations are expected to grow strongly until 2047 and beyond in England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic, all driven by immigration.
If these projections are accurate, they herald a shocking reversal of demographic fortunes. Northern Ireland’s population has grown by 13 per cent since the Belfast Agreement, consistently outpacing Scotland, Wales and several English regions.
It has historically had the UK’s youngest population but is already the fastest-ageing part of the UK and will be the oldest part within a generation.
All of this has profound implications for government, business and society. It seems almost trite to consider examples, as everything will change; the whole world has been built on an assumption of growth.
Healthcare is about to become so expensive that only drastic reform might save it. Surplus school places will make Northern Ireland’s segregated education system unsustainable – one-fifth of desks are already empty. Crime will fall, being mainly committed by young men, but it will be harder to fill jobs in policing and many other public and private sector roles. A housing shortage could become a glut, easing related pressures on the water system and the environment, although it will hardly solve those problems. Dereliction and falling property taxes may even make them worse.
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The predicted start of decline, 2033, is less than two Stormont mandates away – not long under a form of democracy where every party is virtually guaranteed to be in office. The northern executive has policies, programmes and statutory targets that stretch into the middle of the century, such as netzero by 2050 and a housing supply strategy up to 2039. Many of its plans make reference to the expected ageing of the population, but none have so far had to consider decline – they were all written before Nisra predicted it.
Immigration into Northern Ireland is low by UK standards and would only have to increase slightly to prevent population decline. Government will inevitably consider this to sustain services and business. Public attitudes to immigration may soften if decline is felt to be causing problems.
Although immigration is not devolved, Stormont has options to encourage people to relocate, by promoting available jobs and housing, for example. Any British or Irish citizen can freely move to Northern Ireland, as can anyone legally resident in Britain. Relatively cheaper housing may attract people of their own volition – there are some signs of this happening already on a limited scale. The predicted disparity between Northern Ireland and everywhere around it – England’s population should be 15 per cent higher by 2047 – may cause unpredictable flows of people and money.
Would an ageing region drive away the young, or would a lower cost of living keep them at home? Would investors see potential bargains or a doomed, shrinking market?
As for the traditional demographic question in Northern Ireland, predictions still point to stalemate, with unionists and nationalists both stuck short of outright majorities for the foreseeable future. While that will always be in the political background, the demographics of the next few decades may be more complicated that anyone was expecting.
