The British government is generally considered to be doing a good job at maintaining relationships with Washington and Brussels. It is the only aspect of prime minister Keir Starmer’s first year in office to have been widely hailed as a success. But this diplomatic balancing act is becoming trickier by the day. The UK is under increasing pressure to pick a side and Northern Ireland is caught in the middle.
Last weekend, British newspapers reported Cabinet sources claiming that a UK-US trade deal is effectively complete and could be announced within weeks.
Such a deal would be a particular triumph for Starmer. The Conservatives could never taunt him again for opposing Brexit if he landed what Brexiteers see as the ultimate prize. However, US requirements appear to clash with the deal Britain wants from the Brussels.
On March 31st, the Trump administration’s trade agency criticised the UK for aligning too closely with EU rules on food, animal and plant health, known as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations. The report from the Office of the United States Trade Representative denounced the alignment as a non-tariff barrier that restricts US imports with no basis in safety or science. Starmer wants this alignment not only to continue, but to become much closer.
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Labour’s 2024 election manifesto promised a “veterinary agreement”, meaning an SPS deal, to deliver economic growth and reset relations with Europe. The British government has refused to clarify how close a veterinary agreement it wants, partly as a negotiating tactic and partly to avoid accusations of reversing Brexit. Accepting the jurisdiction of EU courts and automatically shadowing EU law – so-called dynamic alignment – are contentious issues in Britain.
Further concerns have been voiced in the US about Northern Ireland becoming a back door for EU goods
Nevertheless, London is pursing a closer deal. One of its stated reasons for doing so is lowering the Windsor Framework “sea border” between Britain and Northern Ireland. Dynamic alignment would remove all SPS paperwork and inspections. If Starmer favours a US deal over an EU deal, it might appear he is choosing to make the sea border a permanent and ever-widening feature.
But there is a remarkable complication.
In the March 31st report, Washington also denounced the Windsor Framework as a non-tariff barrier. The framework can obstruct US imports in two main ways: through EU SPS requirements and through an unworkable tariff refund system. Anyone bringing foreign goods into Northern Ireland, either directly or via Britain, must pay the EU tariff if it is higher than the UK tariff. They can reclaim the difference if they prove the goods are remaining in the UK.
This refund system has never been seriously tested. Business groups say it is impractical, and firms will simply stop buying US goods if Brussels applies retaliatory tariffs.
It appears Starmer is being mocked for making divergent UK artificial intelligence regulation a prominent economic policy
Further concerns have been voiced in the US about Northern Ireland becoming a back door for EU goods. It might seem implausible that such a small and remote region might pose any risk to the American economy, but the EU has made scarcely less ridiculous claims about the risk to its single market, and insisted that these be treated with the utmost gravity.
So rather than seeing a US trade deal as entrenching the sea border, some unionists hope Trump’s new world order might sweep the Windsor Framework away. Twice in the past week, the Conservatives have asked if the government will suspend the framework using its Article 16 mechanism, should the refund system cause problems. The government has replied it will concentrate on making the system work. In a Commons debate last Tuesday on Trump’s tariffs, DUP MPs demanded that the government “extricate Northern Ireland from EU rules”.
Hilary Benn, the Northern Secretary, replied: “The single most important reason for sticking with the implementation of the Windsor Framework is that we want to negotiate closer economic relationships with the European Union, including a sanitary and phytosanitary and a veterinary agreement.”
In other words, unionists should hug the EU closer.
Benn’s statement reveals that the UK still hopes to avoid choosing sides. Securing a US deal that leaves the way open to an EU veterinary agreement would be an extraordinary achievement.
The Conservatives could never taunt Starmer again for opposing Brexit if he landed what Brexiteers see as the ultimate prize
Starmer might be expected to lean more towards Europe because of economic geography, his political preferences and the capriciousness of the current occupant of the White House. But that is not guaranteed. The prime minister has said he believes Trump’s tariffs mark a “profound” change in the world. The UK also finds itself dealing with a capricious and occasionally belligerent EU.
Last month, the European Commission proposed applying EU artificial intelligence regulation to Northern Ireland, although this is outside the terms of the Windsor Framework. It appears Starmer is being mocked for making divergent UK artificial intelligence regulation a prominent economic policy.
The critique of Britain crawling to Washington is that eventually it will have to stand up for itself. That goes for crawling to Brussels too.
