Another week, another warning that Ireland is not going to achieve the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions agreed with the EU and as a result, will face “billions” in fines. This time it took the form of an Environmental Protection Agency forecast that we will achieve reductions of 23 per cent by 2030, compared to our target of 51 per cent.
It follows March’s warning from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) and Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) that we face a “staggering” bill of between €8 billion and €26 billion if we don’t cut emissions. The bill takes the forms of an obligation to buy credits from other member states that exceed their targets.
Funnily enough, national panic has not ensued and the opposition parties have devoted their energy to beating up the management of the national broadcaster live on Oireachtas TV.
Whether or not Ryan Tubridy repays €150,000 to RTÉ would seem rather beside the point if the State is really facing a €26 billion bill in five years’ time. Surely at least one member of the Oireachtas is wondering where we’ll get the money.
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Only a fool or a US president would deny global warming and its potential consequences at this stage. Persuading people to accept big changes to their lives in order to cut emissions is arguably the most difficult and most important challenge facing this Government and any government that comes after it. We don’t even seem to be trying.
The EU’s efforts to make the impact of the climate crisis more immediate and tangible – in the form of fiscal penalties – should have pushed the Government into action. But they clearly don’t take the threat of such enormous fines seriously. And they are probably on safe ground.
Despite this week’s upbeat assessment that the EU expects to come very close to its target of reducing emissions by 55 per cent compared with 1990 levels, the picture at the level of individual countries is much less even.
Ireland may well be bottom of the class. The EU expects us to achieve only 60 per cent of targeted reductions, but we are in good company. The three largest EU members, Germany, France and Italy – which account for about 60 per cent of EU economic output – don’t look like they are going to make it either.
France will come close as the EU expects it will achieve 98 per cent of targeted emissions. However, its rate of reduction is slowing. Achieving reductions in areas including transport is proving difficult and forestry is absorbing less carbon than predicted. Ireland has experienced difficulties in the same areas.
Italy will fall significantly short at 93 per cent of targeted emissions. Its plans around the adoption of electric vehicles and other measures are deemed unrealistic by Brussels. The desire of the country’s right-leaning prime minister Giorgia Meloni to make Italy a “gas hub” in the Mediterranean doesn’t chime either.
Germany – the largest EU economy – will miss its target by a lot. It is expected to achieve only 82 per cent of its target. Reversing the slowdown in Germany’s manufacturing-driven economy is the top priority of the incoming coalition, which is less wedded to climate protection than its predecessor.
The most likely scenario seems to be that we will arrive in a situation in five years’ time where the three biggest EU economies – and three biggest contributors to the EU budget – undershoot their emission reduction targets.
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The idea that they will spend billions buying credits from EU member states that they already provide significant indirect support to seems far-fetched. It would be an act of economic self-harm on the level of Brexit or Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Ireland will be able to hide under their coat-tails, but if that is the strategy – as it appears to be – it’s a pretty pathetic one. It says nothing good about our politics or our society that we duck these issues. It does say a lot about an endemic lack of seriousness that characterises a lot of public life.
Leaving aside the moral failure that it represents, there is a danger that our already dwindling stock of goodwill with our European partners will shrink even further. Giving the two fingers to the EU’s flagship climate action plan is not going to endear us to Brussels and the other member states.
