Ministerial rivals must bite their tongues and bide their time, writes Mark Hennessy
Bertie Ahern has watched the difficulties encountered by British prime minister Tony Blair as he sought to manage his departure from the political stage, and is determined not to make the mistakes of his Downing Street counterpart.
Flanked by an ambitious successor in the shape of Brown, Blair sought to buy space by making it clear that he would not seek a fourth term in office, but that he would serve all of a third term. In Blair's case, his remarks failed to achieve the desired effect.
Instead of buying time, it merely set the clock running - one that will run out on 10 years in power next week.
So far, Ahern has followed Blair's example. He has said that he would not seek to lead a fourth government, and has also said that he would serve out all of this term of office.
Unlike Blair, however, Ahern is blessed in having in Cowen a figure who is, above all else, loyal and who is the least likely of all political figures to organise a putsch.
Ever since the election was held, Ahern has rapidly pushed Cowen's candidature to replace him as leader of Fianna Fáil into the public eye.
In the days afterwards, he talked about how he would not make any major moves until he first consulted with his Minister for Finance, who had played an influential role in the campaign.
Subsequently, Ahern has deliberately gone out of his way to emphasise Cowen's position as the heir apparent, culminating in his RTÉ News At One interview.
"Brian Cowen and I have been friends since the mid-1980s. We've worked together, he's a brilliant mind, and he's a great colleague. He has a vast amount of experience and is still not much beyond his mid-40s.
"He is a hugely experienced politician. Obviously the party will ultimately decide, but [ from] my point of view, he is the obvious successor to me in five years' time or whenever," he told the programme.
However, there are a few things about all of this that make little sense. Firstly, Ahern and Cowen are not great friends. They have acted as close colleagues certainly, but friendship is a different matter.
Secondly, Cowen, who has always left audiences unsure about the scale of his ambition to become taoiseach, does not need Ahern's endorsement to replace him.
"If Bertie is drawing Cowen close to him, then it is for Bertie's benefit, not Cowen's. You can be sure of that. Bertie never does something like this without reason," mused a colleague this week.
Undoubtedly, Cowen would win an election among the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party if an election were to be held now or at any time in the not very foreseeable future.
However, there are a few candidates - Mary Hanafin, Micheál Martin and Dermot Ahern - who would like to run or, at the very least, would like to be considered as viable candidates if only to protect their long-term ministerial existences.
Few, if any, of them have been best pleased by Ahern's intervention, though one, perhaps, has to parse and analyse to reach judgments: "If the election was in the morning, he would undoubtedly get it. But the election is not in the morning, and the Taoiseach has no intention of going for a number of years," Hanafin told RTÉ's Week In Politics last Sunday.
The newly-appointed Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey was, as is his wont, a little more direct on RTÉ's Questions and Answers: "I think most people were surprised that he said it, all right. I would say most people are surprised. It's not a usual thing to happen," said Dempsey, who seemed not to accept the notion that Cowen's accession is as inevitable as was the case when Seán Lemass succeeded Éamon de Valera.
"Well, there wasn't much doubt about it then," he said, implying that there is a doubt about it now, before adding: "I would never dismiss an opportunity to be a leader of Fianna Fáil if the occasion arose."
Meanwhile, Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern, often touted - to his irritation - as one who is eagerly ambitious, is more circumspect about the path ahead.
"The Taoiseach is right that Brian Cowen is the obvious successor at this time. I am at a loss to know why he raised it, particularly in view of the fact that he said that he would be staying on until the end of term.
"There is no vacancy, and he has made it clear that there will be no vacancy. He has made it clear publicly and he has made it clear privately to me also," he told The Irish Times this week.
"My focus for the next number of years is purely and simply on foreign policy and I will continue with that. I have said many times that any politician worth his salt would like to lead a party as large and magnificent as Fianna Fáil.
"But I have also said publicly that I would not lose any sleep if I wasn't leader of Fianna Fáil. I am lucky enough to have a life outside politics, which I very much cherish and which I would be very reluctant to sacrifice.
"My philosophy in life has always been to take one day at a time. I regard being a Minister of the Cabinet as a singular honour," said Ahern.
Although his Cabinet colleagues are unsure about his true motivations, Ahern's self-interest and his judgment about what is the best for Fianna Fáil may coincide, since Ahern is convinced of Cowen's superiority over his competition.
An admirer of Cowen's intellect and work-rate, Ahern has, however, worried about Cowen's ability to sustain, or to tolerate the relentless public focus that comes with modern political leadership.
That said, Ahern has done nothing to help rival candidates improve their CVs. Hanafin needs an economic ministry, while Martin could have added the Northern Ireland brief to his quiver if he had gone to Foreign Affairs. Given that Ahern nearly always has multiple motives for any action, he may have decided that the public must be slowly brought to terms with the gruff reality of Cowen, rather than foisting him on them later.
But there is suspicion in Fianna Fáil that Ahern, fearful that he may run into trouble with the Mahon tribunal at some point during the life of the Government, has acted primarily in his best interests.
"Let's imagine that something does blow up down there. We now have a situation where Bertie Ahern has placed his hand upon Cowen's shoulder, and brought him closer," said one Fianna Fáil TD.
In the meantime, everything Cowen does now will be interpreted not just as the actions of the Minister for Finance, but as the man who would be king. Such may not always suit him.