The power to call an election is among the most significant powers held by prime ministers in those political systems where parliaments do not have fixed terms, writes Noel Whelan
Prime ministers will usually seek to exercise this power at the moment best suited to ensuring their party will be re-elected to government. A wily premier can pull a surprise, spring an election on the country at short notice, and hit the campaign trail running, leaving the opposition to catch up. Alternatively, he or she can play cat-and-mouse with the opposition (and indeed with the media), hinting that an election is imminent, causing opponents to burn up resources on election preparations, only to have it all set at naught when the election is not called.
Talking up the prospects of an election or even letting election speculation build can be risky, however, as British prime minister Gordon Brown learned last weekend. Only time will tell whether Brown's premiership has been fatally damaged by the bout of cold feet he suffered when the polls chilled.
In our political system the legal authority to dissolve the Dáil at any point before the end of the statutory five-year term is a trump card for the Taoiseach. As long as he has a Dáil majority, he gets to exercise that power unhindered. In practice, there may be party political or coalition considerations, but ultimately it is he and he alone who has to make the call as to when to go to the country. It is he who gets all the credit if he gets it right and who carries all the blame if it goes wrong.
Irish taoisigh have learnt the hard way that the power to call elections can be a sharp double-edged sword. In 1989, Charles Haughey, still jet-lagged after a long-haul trip to Japan, and irritated that his minority government had lost another Private Members' motion in the Dáil, allowed the more bullish of his ministers to persuade him to call an election even though his government wasn't even halfway through its term.
It was a bad move. Fianna Fáil returned after that election with even fewer seats and was compelled to go into government with the Progressive Democrats. Elsewhere John Bruton is still criticised by some Rainbow politicians who, with the benefit of hindsight, claim he should have called the 1997 election in the autumn of that year rather than in the early summer.
Bertie Ahern has managed to avoid the pitfalls of election timing. Indeed, one of the most striking features of Ahern's tenure as Taoiseach is how he has forgone some of the benefits of holding this power by indicating at the outset that his governments will run full-term. It is said that when his first cabinet had its inaugural meeting in Áras an Uachtaráin after the 1997 election, Ahern told them there and then that it would be a full five years before the next general election.
Although many doubted him during both his first and second terms, he was true to his word, going almost to the last possible moment before calling the elections in 2002 and 2007. Many of his political colleagues and strategists advised him against leaving it so long. In fact in both 2001 and 2006 some of those closest to Ahern gave off-the-record quotes to newspapers suggesting he was blowing his best chance at re-election by not going to the polls four years in.
Both times, however, Ahern stuck with his original schedule and, notwithstanding turbulence in the polls, economic uncertainties and late breaking stories about his personal finances, he twice came out the winner.
Even the manner in which Ahern carefully constructed his current government by bringing the Green Party and some Independents in with the Progressive Democrats owes much to his desire to nail down a comfortable majority so that his party can again be in power for a full term. It has proved a very wise move, especially in light of the lackadaisical approach of some of his deputies towards turning up for Dáil votes.
However, Ahern's days of calling elections are over. As of now, it is odds-on that it will be Brian Cowen who will next exercise this power.
The informal head-counting has already begun within Fianna Fáil. Anywhere that two or more TDs, party advisers or even journalists gather for a political natter of any length these days, the topic of conversation inevitably turns at some point to whether it will definitely be Cowen.
Of course, Dermot Ahern is right when he says that open speculation about the succession is premature, but that doesn't stop it happening in private. In Fianna Fáil, only TDs get to choose the leader.
The view of most Fianna Fáil parliamentarians is that the next leadership contest looks like remaining a one-horse race.
Interestingly, however, many of them when pressed say that if a real alternative to Cowen ever emerges, it is more likely to be Mícheál Martin than any of the other reported contenders. In the words of one deputy: "The Corkman hasn't gone away, you know."
If Cowen does become the next Fianna Fáil leader he is likely to find himself in circumstances similar to Gordon Browne's. He, too, may benefit from a honeymoon bounce. He, too, will have come to the top job after years of being second in command. He will also have many advising him to seek his own mandate.
However, if watching Bertie Ahern up close hasn't already persuaded Cowen of the merits of leaving elections to the last possible moment, then Browne's recent difficulties surely will.