ANALYSIS:A new opinion poll appears to show that British prime minister Gordon Brown is still in with a chance in next year's general election, writes MARK HENNESSY
SOME PEOPLE like rain. Back in July 2007, Gordon Brown, then only newly installed in 10 Downing Street, visited homeowners devastated by flooding in Yorkshire, the Cotswolds and elsewhere. The man thought grim and dour by many did well in the community centres and made speedy decisions on emergency help; the locals responded. So, too, did voters nationally, and for a while Brown could have called an election and won it easily.
But he dithered, and the moment passed. For months, the issue concerning those interested in British electoral politics has been not whether Labour would lose, but whether Conservative leader David Cameron would win by enough to rule.
On Saturday, Brown was back amidst flood damage, visiting Cockermouth in Cumbria, which has been devastated by “a 1,000-year flood” and near where he had holidayed during the summer with his wife, Sarah, and children. His Cumbrian expedition occurred as news began to emerge of the latest Ipsos/Mori poll in yesterday’s Observer, which showed the Conservatives’ lead cut below what they need to win a majority.
With 37 per cent support, Cameron’s team is at its lowest in the Ipsos ratings since last December, while Labour stands at 31 per cent and the Liberal Democrats lag significantly with just 17 per cent.
Cameron’s task is huge. He must win by at least 10 points to get an overall majority of just one in the election, which must be held by June and which will probably be held in May. Yesterday’s figures are nowhere near enough. Indeed, they leave him 35 short.
Labour, according to the poll, is up five points: just the second time in sixth months that the party has polled more than 30 points, though Labour does not start to capture the all-important floating voter until its numbers top 35 points.
However, a poll is but a poll. Significantly, the monthly average of all of the polls shows that a fairly stable picture of support exists: with the Conservatives ahead of Labour by 13 points. Nevertheless, there is more and more talk of a hung parliament.
In essence, Labour’s green shoots of hope, even if they are tentative, are based on a belief that the recession is over; that unemployment has peaked; and that the public, though still angry, are not as mad as they were even just a few months ago. The same poll reported the highest level of economic optimism in the UK since 1997: 43 per cent expect things to be better next year; just 23 per cent say it will get worse; and 27 per cent believe it will limp along as it is.
Privately, Labour MPs and strategists argue that the Conservatives made a crucial mistake by outlining so many cutbacks – even if they are just a fraction of what will be needed – when they met in conference in Manchester.
The opinion polls taken subsequently support the Labour view: the public does not rate the 38-year-old Tory shadow chancellor, George Osborne, and they rarely give politicians credit for telling them that pain is about to come. However, a few reality checks lie ahead for Labour: the chancellor of the exchequer, Alistair Darling, must deliver a pre-budget statement to MPs in December; VAT rates will rise in January, and a draconian budget must be given in March.
Taxes will have to rise – not just for the rich. Spending will be cut, and declaration after declaration that frontline services in hospitals and schools will be guaranteed will not be believed, even by people who want public spending to fall, rather than taxes to rise.
And Labour’s predictions have been wrong before. A few weeks ago, it had confidently expected the end of the recession to be announced by the Office of National Statistics. Speeches had been prepared, in fact.
The ONS did not do so. Instead, it said the economy was still shrinking. Some argue that the statistical body is slow to pick up signs of economic recovery but, even so, Brown cannot afford a minus figure in the ONS’s score-card next time.
The withdrawal from reality that occasionally afflicts Labour was evident again during the Queen’s speech last week, when Queen Elizabeth, amid much pomp and ceremony, came to Westminster to deliver a seven-minute speech.
In it, Brown sought to legislate to make mankind good, with legal commitments to cut national debt, to increase overseas aid, to give everybody the right to a good education; along with better care for the elderly, even if the funds to pay for it are questionable.
Yet all of this is taking place in a country that has a worse borrowing figure than Ireland, where tax revenues are plummeting by 7.8 per cent and where government spending has risen by 10.2 per cent.
The UK will borrow £175 billion (€194 billion) in the year to April next to pay its way, the chancellor believes, and current figures, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, still give him a chance of meeting that target.
However, October is supposed to be one of the British treasury’s best months, boosted by corporation tax receipts. Except this year, they have fallen by a quarter and show no immediate sign of recovery.
Nevertheless, Labour is right in believing that everything depends on the economy, even more so than on Afghanistan. Cameron’s march can be halted, or, at least, be significantly impeded, if Darling’s figures come right.
Mark Hennessy is London Editor
