The political parties are raising the temperature in advance of the resumption of the Dáil on Wednesday. The dynamics of the Dáil have changed in the summer recess. The parties seek to warn their supporters of the threat of a general election but the reality is that neither the Coalition Government nor the Opposition parties have any desire to engage in an early contest.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, needs time to restructure and bed-in a new Cabinet, present a more caring, less arrogant, image to the public, and put the defeat which Fianna Fáil suffered in the local and European elections well behind him. At the same time, the Fine Gael leader, Mr Enda Kenny, will have to construct the framework of an alternative government, in association with the Labour Party and the Green Party, and tease out the terms of an agreed policy platform.
The tide in the life of this Government has, however, passed the flood. It is now ebbing. After more than two years in office - seven in reality - the June election results brought a harsh mid-term message to Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats from a disillusioned electorate. The need for change and revitalisation has been tacitly accepted by both Mr Ahern and the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, and the outcome will become evident in the composition of a reshuffled Cabinet later this week. Nothing short of root-and-branch transformation is likely to impress the public or the backbenchers.
Tactics in the Dáil are likely to reflect the changed situation. Having concentrated their attacks on Government failures for the past two years, the Opposition parties are now likely to begin advocating policies of their own, while seeking common ground on key issues. Fine Gael will return to traditional values by concentrating on the difficulties of an over-stretched Garda force in coping with anti-social behaviour fuelled by drink and drugs. Value for money in Government spending will figure strongly, as will consumer rights. Health services funding and medical card eligibility will be given priority by the Labour Party. And the Green Party is expected to focus on the Government's abandonment of its commitment to a carbon tax.
Much of the debating time in the Dáil between now and Christmas will be devoted to Government spending estimates for 2005 and the December Budget. In that regard, a better-than-expected economic situation and higher tax revenue is expected to contribute to increased spending on health and education while raising the take-home pay of those at work. The Disability Bill will be given prominence. And, in the absence of Mr Charlie McCreevy in Brussels, the Cabinet is likely to review over-ambitious plans to decentralise 10,000 civil and public servants. By-elections in Meath and Kildare North may be postponed until next year. It will be a busy and interesting Dáil session which should determine, a year or two out, whether there is the possibility of a credible alternative government going into the next election.