Britain's debate on whether to remain in or leave the European Union is properly under way now, as voters prepare to decide on June 26th. The terms of argument have gone well beyond the four major points on economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty, social benefits and free movement negotiated with Brussels and agreed at last month's summit.
This is now a deeper and broader debate about the UK’s future external political and economic security – and internally about its own very future as a unitary state. Divisions in the Conservative Party and close polling evidence for the In and Out sides ensure it will attract major attention.
Whether that translates into a strong turnout is becoming a major factor for both campaigns. Prime Minister David Cameron has been relatively successful in getting the negotiated points perceived and framed positively despite a bitterly hostile Eurosceptic media, and is now going beyond them to the larger issues.
The first few weeks of campaigning have seen the Remain side better organised and more focussed on its main themes. In comparison the Leave campaign is divided on organisation and strategy. But it has powerful support at elite level, including major Conservative figures like Boris Johnson. On the ground many voters are disenchanted with the EU, feel their political identities and welfare are threatened by the immigration they associate with it, and believe it worsens their material welfare and security.
Domestic politics plays directly into these concerns. If he is to win the referendum Mr Cameron must appeal beyond Conservative supporters to a much wider constituency, including the 20 per cent undecideds. He needs Labour votes in England and has moderated a number of demands on social protection to make that appeal.
Local elections in England and those for the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland and Welsh assemblies in May will take energy from the EU campaign. And the new Labour leadership under Jeremy Corbyn is determined not to associate with the Conservatives too closely on Europe for fear of losing support to the United Kingdom Independence Party which threatens its base in northern and midlands England and in Wales. Without a stronger Labour showing overall turnout would be lower, giving the Leave side an advantage.
Ireland North and South has a huge interest in the outcome, since a Brexit decision would disrupt relations with our large neighbour, make the Irish border into the EU one and change the European playing field to Ireland's disadvantage. Ireland and the UK are on different trajectories in Europe because of our euro membership.
Despite that it would suit us best to have this issue resolved by a vote to remain in the EU and then for the UK to play a constructive role. It is much too early – and arguably unrealistic – to expect such a decisive outcome.