The re-election of Mariano Rajoy as Spanish prime minister by parliament last weekend deserves a qualified welcome. It averts the option of a third indecisive general election within a year, ending a 10-month hiatus in which he has led a limping caretaker administration. It also marks an historic rupture with the two-party system that has long dominated Spanish politics.
In order to govern, Rajoy's right-wing Partido Popular (PP) had to seek the support, albeit via abstention, of the centre-left Socialist Party (PSOE). This leaves the opposition in the hands of radical leftists and regional nationalists for the first time. However, the shift is less drastic than seemed likely in last December's elections when public disenchantment with the two 'establishment' parties was at its height. Although two major new parties, Podemos on the left and Ciudadanos on a conservative anti-corruption ticket, broke into parliament, neither did so with sufficient strength to displace the bigger parties.
Moreover Rajoy, to general surprise, suceeded in clawing back some support in a second general election in June, despite new scandals. This led Ciudadanos to drop its demand that the PP change its leader in exchange for supporting a minority government. Meanwhile the PSOE imploded; its leader was ousted last month by party barons who preferred abstaining, and allowing Rajoy become premier, to facing another election.
Rajoy’s new mandate is extremely fragile and his challenge will be much tougher than during his first period in office when he governed in his favoured autocratic style, cushioned by an absolute majority. Ciudadanos’s support, from outside the cabinet, is conditioned by the PP’s willingness to adhere to 150 agreed policy points. These include anti-corruption measures that will be fiercely resisted by much of the PP machine. A fragmented PSOE’s continuing willingness to keep Rajoy in power is even less secure.
Rajoy will need to discover a talent for dialogue that he has not demonstrated previously if he is to meet the demands of his new situation and calm the gathering storm over Catalan independence.