US president Joe Biden's accusation that Vladimir Putin is a killer provoked fury among the Russian leader's allies and prompted Moscow to recall its US ambassador for consultations. The Russian foreign ministry said it expected an explanation from Washington and warned of "an irreversible deterioration in relations" with the new US administration. "It takes one to know one," Putin himself replied.
None of this – Biden's remark or the indignant Russian response – amounts to much more than diplomatic theatre. But it is indicative of the sudden cooling in relations between the White House and the Kremlin since Biden came to power in January. Biden has so far shown none of Barack Obama's aversion to public confrontation with Russia when he was president. On Tuesday, the US government released a declassified intelligence report that found Putin had ordered influence operations to hurt Biden's candidacy in the 2020 US election. Russian agents spread "misleading or unsubstantiated allegations" designed to denigrate Biden and boost Donald Trump's standing, including by feeding information to Trump associates, according to the report.
A great deal turns on Biden’s response to those findings. He says Putin will “pay a price” for his interference, but if the punishment amounts to a quasi-symbolic tightening of sanctions on Russian politicians and officials close to Putin, many of whom are already living with – and largely unaffected by – bans on American bank accounts and travel, then that will be a low price to pay. A more aggressive approach – and one likely to provoke a Russian response – would involve going after senior Russian figures’ money around the world, including the billions controlled by oligarchs close to the Kremlin.
In the meantime, both sides will continue to co-ordinate in areas where it suits them. They should begin by agreeing to renew the Start nuclear arms control deal, which limits each country’s deployed strategic arsenals and which both sides have signalled they wish to maintain.