After weeks of nods, winks, hints and nudges, the general election campaign is finally under way. Recent days have seen some rather silly games of one-upmanship between the leaders of the two main Government parties. Before travelling to Áras an Uachtaráin this afternoon to request the dissolution of the Dáil, Simon Harris seemed almost relieved to at last be making his first direct appeal to voters for a fresh mandate.
The absence of the element of surprise means no party has an excuse for being unprepared for what lies ahead. That does not mean there will be no unexpected moments. But the main surprise so far may be that Ireland is an outlier in this year of elections. Across the world, voters have punished incumbents and rewarded oppositions. That may yet happen here too, but at the outset of this campaign, according to the most recent Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll, combined support for the three Government parties stood at precisely the same level as at the last election.
The issues that preoccupy voters are well established. Housing remains the primary concern, followed by health and the cost of living. Immigration now features more strongly than before.
But there are two additional challenges it would be folly to ignore.
The first is climate. For four years, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have been content to let their Green Party colleagues take the lead on climate action, along with the inevitable brickbats that come with it. The result has been a relatively strong Government performance on the issue, but a sense that the two larger parties are quite capable of backsliding if that proves expedient.
They are not the only ones. Sinn Féin’s climate policies remain inconsistent and unconvincing. Whoever is in government after the election, a more responsible approach will be essential, not least because of the looming threat of billions of euro in fines.
The second issue is economic security. The Government has brushed off warnings from its own watchdog, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, over the risk posed by its dependence on windfall taxes generated by foreign direct investment. That risk escalated this week with Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. It is impossible to know to what extent Trump will follow through on his promises of punitive tariffs, but it would be rash not to prepare. How to do so is a question that all parties that seriously aspire to power should answer.
Over the next three weeks, the parties will publish manifestos with differing visions of how to build a better Ireland. That is as it should be. What should not be acceptable at this time of uncertainty is a descent into the sort of auction politics that have served the country so badly in the past.