There is much to compare and contrast in Belarus and Ukraine, as both countries have voted in elections dominated by their relations with Russia. Over the weekend Ukrainian voters went to the polls in an election expected to register a swing towards the pro-Russian party ousted from power in the Orange Revolution 16 months ago.
As they did so, Belarus police arrested hundreds of people protesting in Minsk against the rigging of elections there last weekend. These events are linked by the urge for democratic change, but they differ in their political orientations.
Although it has been a disappointing year for Ukrainians hoping for radical and demonstrable change, they do have a chance to change their government much more freely than before. For the first time, the new parliament will be able to nominate a government - this after the political system was reorganised and made more democratically accountable.
It looks as if Viktor Yanukovich's Regions party, based in the eastern part of the country, will emerge as the leading force. He has regained support because Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, who led the Orange Revolution, were not able to translate their victory into any solid achievement in office. Their supporters are disenchanted after a year of factionalism, opportunism and continuing elite corruption.
In contrast, Belarus's election was judged flawed by OSCE observers, and the EU has imposed travel restrictions on its leaders. But the protest movement in Minsk over the last week cannot compare in scale or intensity with that in Kiev in November 2004, however similar their complaints about an authoritarian government. President Lukashenko exercises power with all the trappings and style of a Soviet party boss. He nevertheless has substantial popular support, based on a redistribution of revenues from growing trade with Russia and the intimate connections between their peoples. In condemning his heavy-handed crackdown on protesters, these facts must also be borne in mind.
Both states were formerly part of the Soviet Union and share many features of that inheritance. This makes them directly exposed to the trauma arising from Russia's loss of power and pride since then. Under President Putin this is being felt more acutely as he asserts international leverage from Russia's energy resources amid growing resentment over western penetration of what is widely regarded there as its proper sphere of influence. From the West, this is seen as Russian meddling or bullying. In consequence, there is much room for misunderstanding.