The received political wisdom in the early days of 2015 is that the Coalition’s goose is cooked and the rise of Independents, Sinn Féin and smaller parties is set to continue inexorably with untold consequences for the political system.
Lucinda Creighton’s announcement that a new party is about to be born will fuel the narrative that all is about to change and change utterly in Irish politics over the next year.
A succession of opinion polls would certainly suggest that a fundamental shake-up is on the way whenever the next election happens, whether later this year or early in 2016.
With Independents and smaller parties consistently polling more than 30 per cent and Sinn Féin more than 20 per cent the potential for a seismic shift in politics clearly exists.
So much went wrong so unexpectedly for the Coalition in 2014 that recovery is difficult to envisage. The ancient Chinese used to say that when the mandate of heaven has been lost the days of a ruler are numbered. Some Government supporters have been gripped by that sense of foreboding.
And yet there is nothing inevitable about it. If anything, the growing public awareness that a political upheaval of enormous magnitude is now a realistic possibility might even prompt voters to pull back from the brink, if political chaos appears to be the alternative.
Creighton’s announcement of a new party yesterday was immediately met with a riposte from Independent TD Shane Ross who is seeking to establish a rival network of Independents. Others can be expected to jostle in over the coming months to capitalise on the mood of disillusionment.
The various Independents and groupings have a wide variety of contradictory solutions to current problems but they all seem agreed the whip system is the source of all evil and its elimination will prompt political nirvana. How precisely a government is to get a Dáil majority for the difficult decisions that will inevitably be required in the coming years is a mystery.
The latest developments in Greece might prove a wake-up call for those who complacently assume that the economic recovery can be taken for granted and it doesn’t really matter who is in power.
One of the lessons of the economic and financial crisis from which we are emerging is that the welfare of this country and its people are very dependent on the intangible quality of confidence. We still depend on international investor confidence for the money to run public services and pay pensions and welfare benefits at their current levels.
Political developments in Greece could have a direct impact on Irish borrowing costs in the months ahead if a new crisis develops in the euro zone. If the far-left Syriza party wins the general election, as the polls are indicating, it could provide a very instructive lesson in what happens when so-called “anti-austerity” parties win power.
British election
The outcome of the British general election in May could also prove instructive for the Irish electorate if the formation of a stable government proves difficult if not impossible with the rise of Ukip and the Scottish Nationalists.
To have any chance of recovering some of the lost ground over the next year the Coalition will need to display the kind of competence it showed during the first three years in office but which was so sadly lacking for most of last year.
The successful conclusion of the Northern talks before Christmas demonstrated it can be done. Against the odds, agreement emerged because Taoiseach Enda Kenny and hard-working Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan held their nerve and refused to be bullied by Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams.
Kenny showed considerable political courage by backing Cameron and refusing to be blackmailed into a pan-nationalist front as his predecessors in office often were. Flanagan meanwhile got back down to the tedious work of negotiations and helped to ensure financial concessions were wrung from the British not by Sinn Féin but by all of the parties in the North working together.
If other Ministers in both Coalition parties can show the same determination in standing up to their opponents in the Republic as well as the same sound political judgment and capacity for hard work, the future may not be as bleak as some of them believe.
Of course Irish politics in the year ahead will not be a simple contest between the two Government parties and the Sinn Féin/Independent axis. Fianna Fáil hasn’t gone away and could even be nicely poised to make a decisive comeback.
While opinion polls have generally shown Fianna Fáil bobbing along on about 20 per cent of the vote, the local elections of last May saw the party winning 25 per cent and coming back into first place in local government.
Disillusioned
With a significant segment of the electorate disillusioned with the Coalition and a substantial number of voters fearful of what might happen if the Dáil is dominated by Independents and Sinn Féin, the opportunity for a Fianna Fáil breakthrough exists.
Despite some internal criticism, Micheál Martin has done a good job of keeping his party together, putting it in a position to capitalise on the mistakes of others. He also showed courage by being the first party leader in the Republic to take up the Maíria Cahill case and pursuing Sinn Féin on it in an uncompromising manner. The only thing certain about the year ahead in politics is that it will bring surprises that nobody now envisages.