There is an expectation in political circles that Sinn Fein will make gains in the next Dail election. It could even hold the balance of power and exercise pervasive and unaccountable influence like the four Independents in the current Dail.
It is time for Irish democrats to think about such power being in the hands of a party linked with a secret and illegal army. Technically, Sinn Fein and the Irish Republican Army are separate. But we know from business that it is easy to have entities that are legally separate, but under the same ultimate direction.
I believe that Sinn Fein and the IRA are under the same ultimate direction, and I provided explicit briefing to the current Taoiseach to that effect when he took over office from me.
Since then we have had the Good Friday agreement, in which Sinn Fein agreed to use "any influence they may have" to achieve the decommissioning of "all paramilitary arms within two years following referendums North and South on the Agreement".
Notwithstanding Sinn Fein's influence, decommissioning has not happened.
Vincent Browne in The Irish Times correctly points out that the IRA was not a party to this commitment. He goes on to point out that, in May 2000, the IRA did eventually give a commitment that it would initiate a process of putting weapons beyond use "if other commitments are honoured".
The published version of this list of other commitments is so elastic that it leaves the IRA with almost unlimited grounds for indefinite postponement. The commitments go beyond the Patten Report and British demilitarisation, to include "matters relating to human rights, equality and justice".
The interpretation of human rights, equality, or justice is potentially so elastic and subjective that it could allow the IRA to keep putting off decommissioning.
This may seem to be an unduly pessimistic view. Unfortunately, republicans do have proven capacity to give their interlocutors a good feeling, without making a firm commitment.
Remember that, even as far back as January 1996, the IRA persuaded Senator George Mitchell to put his name to the following words in his report: "we have concluded that there is a clear commitment on the part of those in possession of paramilitary arms to work constructively to achieve full and verifiable decommissioning as part of the process of all-party negotiations".
Decommissioning as part of the process of all-party negotiations! The negotiations started, and finished, but decommissioning never even began. Either the paramilitaries misled George Mitchell, or the senator was unduly optimistic.
Another worrying clue to the republican intentions is found in the words of Brian Keenan in South Armagh only four months ago.
He asserted that violence and political negotiations were both legitimate "forms of revolution and both have to be prosecuted to the utmost" and that the revolution can never be over "until we have British imperialism in the dustbin of history".
It is arguable on that basis that, notwithstanding its contingent agreement of May 2000, the IRA will never actually start decommissioning until Northern Ireland has ceased to be part of the UK. What implications has that for Dail Eireann, particularly for one with significant Sinn Fein membership?
We need to look to the provisions of the Constitution for guidance. Article 15.6 says that "the right to raise and maintain military or armed forces is vested exclusively in the Oireachtas".
It has implications for any Dail political party that remains linked to an illegal army.
Political parties taking seats should respect that fundamental prerogative of the Oireachtas. It would be hypocritical to be a member of the Oireachtas, and also to be a member of a political party that supports the continued existence of an alternative army.
Many people in Ireland would be unhappy if a big business, say the Independent group or one of the banks, was to set up and finance its own political party. We would say that such a party was not genuinely independent.
Such concerns were raised in Italy. But how then can one argue here that a party is genuinely independent if it continues to be linked in an undefined way to a secret army?
We demand accountability from parties, accountability for their business links and campaign financing. We should also look for equal accountability for military links. That is a fundamental of democracy.
John Bruton is a Fine Gael TD for Meath, a former leader of the party and former Taoiseach