Imagine if, on Tuesday morning at some Defence Forces event or some constituency gig still celebrating Wexford’s Leinster Senior Hurling final win, our Minister for Defence, Paul Kehoe, had received a call from Leo Varadkar or a Brussels based Irish official telling him to get to Brussels post haste because the European Union wanted him to take on the role of president of the European Commission.
That, in some ways, is akin to what happened to the German defence minister Ursula von der Leyen earlier this week.
On Monday afternoon she was presumably busy going about her relatively routine role as minster for defence and one of the longest-serving members of Angela Merkel’s government when she was plucked from relative political obscurity outside of Germany to take on the most high-profile and potentially most powerful job in the European Union’s political infrastructure.
What the leaders of Europe have managed to achieve on another level is politically awesome
Of course, on another level the comparison with Paul Kehoe winning the political equivalent of the Euro lottery doesn’t measure up. For all of Kehoe’s political skills and abilities and Wexford charm, von der Leyen enjoys some advantages over him. She has much more senior cabinet experience in a much bigger and more important member state.
Von der Leyen enjoys the benefit of proficiency in several of the key working languages of the EU institutions.
That said, on Tuesday afternoon she was a political unknown outside of Germany but by Wednesday morning she was at the centre of a paparazzi scrum at Strasbourg airport having rushed to the seat of the European parliament to begin a rapid round of introductions with MEPs who are expected to approve her appointment as president of the European Commission within the next two weeks.
Bizarre and undemocratic?
The Kehoe analogy does serve, however, to illustrate the extent to which the process by which Europe’s top jobs are filled in the weeks after European elections is bizarre and, on one view, undemocratic.
Defenders of the process point out that the European premiers themselves do have either popular or parliamentary mandates in heading up the governments in their home states. The reality is that, notwithstanding the increasing powers of the European Parliament, the real power in the European system still rests primarily with the heads of government when gathered together in the European Council.
On the other hand, all four of those now set to take up key positions in the European Union will do so without any real parliamentary oversight or committee hearings or any public or semi-public consideration of their qualifications and suitability. Some of them have never even served in or on the body which they have now been chosen to lead.
A week is a long time in politics and it has been a dramatic week in European politics
Yet, what the leaders of Europe have managed to achieve on another level is politically awesome. The allotment of the posts is the ultimate outcome of a delicate Rubik’s cube-like process.
The premiers of Europe have managed to ensure an appropriate balance was maintained between big member states and small member states while also achieving balance between the EU’s centre and periphery in both geographic and power terms.
Appropriate dispersal
They have also managed to ensure an appropriate dispersal of these four key posts between the various Euro-wide party blocs relative to their strength in member state parliaments adjusted for the shifts reflected in last month’s European parliament elections themselves.
It is also impressive that they have managed to do all of that while at the same time ensuring a proportionate gender breakdown in the jobs.
Such is the nature of the process that, for a short while at least, any senior figure in or around the EU is likely to find their own name among those mentioned in dispatches as being in the mix for one of the positions.
Leo Varadkar found himself in that flattering position for a few hours on Tuesday when his name was mentioned as a contender for the presidency of the European Commission. Enda Kenny found himself in a similar position five years ago when, for a couple of days, he was talked of as a possible contender for the presidency of the European Council.
Indeed, in 2004, Bertie Ahern was talked about for a week as the preferred candidate to lead the European Commission. Ahern’s head was turned but he ultimately declined the high life of Brussels for the joys of Drumcondra and Merrion Street.
A week is a long time in politics and it has been a dramatic week in European politics. There are about another 10 days before the formal process of filling these four posts is finalised. It seems, however, that while many friends of Ireland will end up in key posts arising from this current share of positions, the Irish themselves are not to be directly favoured.
Mind you, Mairead McGuinness is well set up perhaps to succeed to the presidency of the European Parliament in 2½ years’ time.