Obstacles on Walsh's road to EU

Short of standing outside Government Buildings this week with a placard around his neck, Agriculture Minister Joe Walsh could…

Short of standing outside Government Buildings this week with a placard around his neck, Agriculture Minister Joe Walsh could not have made clearer his desire to head to Brussels, writes Mark Hennessy.

Pitching to be Ireland's next EU commissioner, Mr Walsh, in yesterday's Irish Times, extolled the present and future importance of agriculture for the Irish economy.

The wily west Corkman's effort to get the €200,000-a-year EU job, has been going on for weeks, helped by a few carefully-placed stories. So far, the campaign, stoked by one senior civil servant and a Government Buildings political adviser, has succeeded admirably.

The EU's longest-serving agriculture minister, he is now the bookies' short-odds favourite to replace David Byrne if Bertie Ahern can secure the agriculture portfolio.

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Just as importantly from Walsh's point of view, it has put some distance between himself and Defence Minister Michael Smith. For months, the two have been regarded as "dead men walking" by ambitious Fianna Fáil TDs anxious to lay hands on the levers of power.

By making himself into a credible Commission candidate, Walsh makes it harder for Ahern to sack him from Cabinet if, in the end, he does not get the Euro gig. However, neither Walsh nor the bookies appoint European commissioners. Ahern does. And, as is his wont, he has kept his own counsel.He must decide on a name within a fortnight if he is to meet the timetable of Commission president-elect, José Manuel Durão Barroso.

Still basking in the glow of a successful Irish EU presidency, Ahern first must decide if agriculture is the best portfolio. Unfortunately for Walsh, there are signals that he may not.

Though he threw a few plaudits in the way of agriculture on Monday, David Byrne voiced his belief that Ireland should bid for a major economic portfolio. Usually cautious in word and deed, Byrne's intervention is significant, particularly since he remains a quiet confidante of the Taoiseach. If he is reflecting the Taoiseach's thoughts, or what he believes are Ahern's thoughts, it would seem that the latter has not ruled out hope that Charlie McCreevy can be persuaded to head for Brussels.

Unless that happens, the autumn reshuffle is in danger of being little more than a damp squib since few natural openings will be left for Ahern to play with.

So far, McCreevy, and more importantly his wife, Noeleen, have made it clear privately that they would not touch the Brussels gig with a barge pole. Ideally, Ahern would send McCreevy to Brussels, Cowen to Finance, Martin to Foreign Affairs, and both Walsh and Smith out to graze.

Walsh's appointment to the Commission would cause deep unhappiness amongst Fianna Fáil TDs, though they would have to keep reasonably quiet in public if he got agriculture. He is regarded by colleagues as the ultimate "mé féiner" and lazy to boot, though even detractors accept that he is a shrewd, level-headed survivor.

Though Fianna Fáil would probably lose any Commission-provoked bye-election, regardless of location, the loss in Cork South West would be particularly galling given how long it took to win the second seat there.

For years, Walsh conspired, and that is the only word for it, against FF headquarters' efforts in the sprawling constituency. Denis O'Donovan, who is being, no doubt, deliberately tested by being put in charge of the Curtin inquiry, emerged in 2002 despite Walsh, not because of him. The Taoiseach hates such constituency conduct by his TDs and Ministers, even though he has been the very worst offender in this area himself. In the past, Mr Ahern, fearful of creating camps that could one day destroy him, has never shown a willingness to spill too much blood in Cabinet shake-ups.

In addition, he has another problem. Regardless of the raw ambition on offer within Fianna Fáil at the moment, which has made the atmosphere within the ranks poisonous, he is not over-burdened with talent to promote.

Though speculation has already turned to the question of Byrne's successor, it is only fair to note his performance in health and consumer protection since 1999. Most farmers would probably have very little in common with Byrne, an urbane, somewhat precious, lawyer, but they do have reason to remember his name.

Following his appointment five years ago, Byrne, who was accused of being a political neophyte and having won a useless job, faced daunting tasks. The beef industry was in a mess. Consumer confidence in all foods had plummeted over BSE and other problems. Sales had gone through the floor, and so too did cattle prices. Byrne's actions, including his order to remove the spine and other risky parts of animal carcasses, helped to restore confidence. Beef consumption today is back to pre-BSE levels, cattle prices in Ireland are at a six-year high, EU intervention stocks have been exhausted, even if production has fallen.

Elsewhere, Byrne has proven to be a thorn in the side of the tobacco industry and created a new food safety regime that will survive long after him. Not a bad record at all.